Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Amy WalterOct 18, 2026

Walter cited Cook Political Report's rating of Kentucky's 6th District as Lean Republican, and spoke of Democratic leadership heading into 2027 with a Democratic House (hedging on whether the Senate would follow).

Said on air, transcribed by us · Pod Save AmericaHear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled
50Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
1Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Amy Walter said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
And so right now, for example, we have that in lean, Republican.
Amy Walter, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Pod Save America
The episode
Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms?
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 18
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10
  1. 1Control of Congress“the challenge for the Democratic leadership going into 2027 with the Democratic House and maybe a Democratic House and Senate is the expectations of the base now are so different”
  2. 2Republican to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Kentucky's district 6“And so right now, for example, we have that in lean, Republican. [on the Kentucky six race]”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“the challenge for the Democratic leadership going into 2027…”1Control of Congress—1000+102
Republican to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Kentucky's district 62Race WinnersZach Dembo won000
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled500

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Control of Congress

    “the challenge for the Democratic leadership going into 2027 with the Democratic House and maybe a Democratic House and Senate is the expectations of the base now are so different”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.02difficulty+102skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    102
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    16
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Race Winners

    Republican to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Kentucky's district 6

    What happenedZach Dembo woncalled Ralph Alvarado
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.02difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2026-house-ky-06
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    in their words:
    lean, Republican
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Zach Dembo
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2026 U.S. House election in Kentucky's district 6
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Ralph Alvarado
    days before the vote when called:
    16
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    50naive 0

The race in this take

every call on each
Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.