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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
4376–4387 of 4,387
Will Levis to be picked “1st round pick”
has the Colts predicted to draft Will Levis (QB, Kentucky) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.
Zay Flowers to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)
has the Vikings predicted to draft Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.
Michael Mayer to be picked “1st round pick”
has the Jaguars predicted to draft Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.
Hendon Hooker to be picked “First round” (picks 1–31)
Bryce Young , C.J. Stroud , Anthony Richardson , Will Levis , and… Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker .
Bijan Robinson to be picked “A team trades up to draft him”
A Team Trades UP For Bijan Robinson ... I don’t expect him to wait too long on draft night before a team calls his name—or makes a trade-up if teams get cute.
BJ Ojulari to be picked “Night 1 (first round)” (picks 1–31)
LSU EDGE BJ Ojulari Goes On Night 1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be picked “Only WR selected in Round 1”
Only 1 WR Goes in Round 1 ... I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s just the former Buckeye who hears his name called on night one
Anthony Richardson to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)
Florida QB Anthony Richardson (scouting report) will elevate and solidify his top-10 pick status after a combine in which he tests extremely well in all the measurables
Spencer Rattler to be picked “clear top prospect in the draft class overall”
But when Rattler ascends to the clear top spot in this draft class overall—something I expect will happen
Breece Hall to be picked “first-round grade / possible first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
Among the backs, I think Eric Gray, Breece Hall, Isaiah Spiller, and Kyren Williams all have a chance to play themselves into the first-round conversation.
Spencer Rattler to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)
Give the top 10 Spencer Rattler and one of the top tackles, and pepper the rest with these studly defenders.
Isaiah Spiller to be picked “first-round grade / possible first-round pick” (picks 1–32)
Among the backs, I think Eric Gray, Breece Hall, Isaiah Spiller, and Kyren Williams all have a chance to play themselves into the first-round conversation.
