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Richard Sherman#43 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 16, 2026

Sherman refused to pick the 49ers-Seahawks divisional game, calling it a pick'em that comes down to the last possession, but they picked Chicago over the Rams, Denver over Buffalo, and Houston 17-9 over New England, while reaffirming their preseason call of the Broncos reaching the Super Bowl.

Said on air or in an interview · The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 2 close calls · all settled
63.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
58.8A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 3Settlednone still waiting
#43Richard Sherman’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Richard Sherman said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I got the Denver Broncos sneaking by with a win.
Richard Sherman, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
The episode
Richard Sherman Podcast - NFL Divisional Predictions: 49ers-Seahawks, Rams-Bears, Bills-Broncos, Texans-Broncos | Richard Sherman Podcast
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJan 15
  2. GradedAug 7–17
  1. 1Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl“Keep in mind you do have the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl coming into this, that was your prediction. / Yeah, I was hoping they wouldn't get this matchup... So I gotta go with the Denver Broncos.”
  2. 2Houston Texans 17 — New England Patriots 9“Maybe a turnover here stopping the red seventeen to nine Houston.”
  3. 3Denver Broncos to beat Buffalo Bills“So I gotta go with the Denver Broncos... got the Denver Broncos sneaking by with a win.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl1Conference ChampionsNE and SEA won500+50
Houston Texans 17 — New England Patriots 92Score Predictions—40.4876.26−35.78
Denver Broncos to beat Buffalo Bills3Game Outcome Picks—1001000
3 calls · 1 hit · 2 close calls · all settled63.558.8

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 63.5 out of 100, against 58.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Conference ChampionsDenver Broncos

    Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl

    What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked DEN
    50Close · naive 0
    50this call0a naive guess50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    50
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE, SEA
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    yes
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Score PredictionsHouston Texans

    Houston Texans 17 — New England Patriots 9

    VerdictClose
    40.48Close · naive 76.26
    40.48this call76.26a naive guess−35.78worse than naive1difficulty−35.78skill

    Closing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3, total 40.5 · this 17–9 calls a Texans win (by 8; the line gave the Texans 38%) and fewer points (26).

    How this was scored
    score:
    16-28
    skill:
    −35.78
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    40.48
    baseline:
    76.26
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    12
    weeks left when called:
    0
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    8
    Think this is wrong?
  3. 3Game Outcome PicksDenver Broncos

    Denver Broncos to beat Buffalo Bills

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    63.5naive 58.8

Others on the same people

More conference champions

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