Richard Sherman#43 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 16, 2026
Sherman refused to pick the 49ers-Seahawks divisional game, calling it a pick'em that comes down to the last possession, but they picked Chicago over the Rams, Denver over Buffalo, and Houston 17-9 over New England, while reaffirming their preseason call of the Broncos reaching the Super Bowl.
Said on air or in an interview · The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Richard Sherman said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI got the Denver Broncos sneaking by with a win.
- Where it was said
- The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- Richard Sherman Podcast - NFL Divisional Predictions: 49ers-Seahawks, Rams-Bears, Bills-Broncos, Texans-Broncos | Richard Sherman Podcast
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- Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 15
- GradedAug 7–17
- 1Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl“Keep in mind you do have the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl coming into this, that was your prediction. / Yeah, I was hoping they wouldn't get this matchup... So I gotta go with the Denver Broncos.”
- 2Houston Texans 17 — New England Patriots 9“Maybe a turnover here stopping the red seventeen to nine Houston.”
- 3Denver Broncos to beat Buffalo Bills“So I gotta go with the Denver Broncos... got the Denver Broncos sneaking by with a win.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl1 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 50 | 0 | +50 | |
| Houston Texans 17 — New England Patriots 92 | Score Predictions | — | 40.48 | 76.26 | −35.78 | |
| Denver Broncos to beat Buffalo Bills3 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 3 calls · 1 hit · 2 close calls · all settled | 63.5 | 58.8 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive3 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 63.5 out of 100, against 58.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Conference ChampionsDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked DEN50Close · naive 050this call−0a naive guess=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 50
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- yes
2Score PredictionsHouston Texans
Houston Texans 17 — New England Patriots 9
VerdictClose40.48Close · naive 76.2640.48this call−76.26a naive guess=−35.78worse than naive×1difficulty=−35.78skillClosing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3, total 40.5 · this 17–9 calls a Texans win (by 8; the line gave the Texans 38%) and fewer points (26).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- −35.78
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 40.48
- baseline:
- 76.26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.03
- predicted margin:
- 8
3Game Outcome PicksDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos to beat Buffalo Bills
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 30-33
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
63.5naive 58.8
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Bobby Skinner · Trade and Signing Calls · Stefon Diggs · Miss 0
Skinner predicted Daniel Jones signs with and wins the starting job in Indianapolis, Milton Williams to New England, Lavonte David back to Tampa, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to the Giants, DJ Reid to Arizona, Hassan Reddick to Washington and Justin Fields staying in Pittsburgh, plus alternates they had listed.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.AJ Hawk · Conference Champions · Los Angeles Rams · Close 50
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.Connor "Boston Connor" Campbell · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.