Mel KiperMar 21, 2026
Kiper's post-free-agency mock draft, as relayed on the show, assigns specific prospects to specific picks through the top 20, including Fernando Mendoza at No. 2, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5 and CJ Allen to the Cowboys at No. 20.
Said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Hear the original
What Mel Kiper said
This is Mel Kuipers mock draft came out this morning, so it's post free agency with those things considered.
- Where it was said
- DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)
- The episode
- Mel Kiper’s Mock Draft Is a NIGHTMARE for the Cowboys
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidMar 21
- GradedAug 17–Oct 1
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mock Draft Picks | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Position Order Calls | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| All | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
How each call scored
20 checkable claims — 19 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 32 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
19 of 20 have settled so far, averaging 73.9 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Mock Draft Picks11 hits · 4 close calls · 3 misses · 1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 18
“18, and everybody's doing this one now. Dylan Theeneman is replacing Harrison Smith... In Minnesota.”
Went 25mocked at 1873.84Closemock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Dillon Thieneman
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Ty Simpson to be picked at number 16
“16, the New York Jets, Ty Simpson, the quarterback out of Alabama.”
Went 13mocked at 1687.81Hitmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
- Went 16mocked at 1595.76Hit
mock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Kenyon Sadiq
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to be picked at number 19
“19 is Emmanuel McNeil Warren, the safety out of Toledo”
Went 58mocked at 1918.46Missmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 18.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 58
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 18.46
- predicted pick:
- 19
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
David Bailey to be picked at number 3
“David Bailey from Texas Tech, the pass rusher to the Jets at number three.”
Went 2mocked at 395.76Hitmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 7
“Number seven, Sonny Styles to the Washington commanders”
Went 7mocked at 7100Hitmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 8
“It was eight. Kansas City Chiefs take Reuben Bain, the defensive end out of Miami.”
Went 15mocked at 873.84Closemock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 9
“Carnell Tate who seems to become... the kind of consensus first receiver off the board out of Ohio State goes to the Saints at number nine.”
Went 4mocked at 980.52Hitmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 4
“Jeremiah Love, I know it breaks our heart. He goes number four.”
Went 3mocked at 495.76Hitmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 2
“I'm gonna shock you with Fernando Mendoza at number two.”
Went 1mocked at 295.76Hitmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
C.J. Allen to be picked at number 20
“And Mel Kuiper goes with CJ Allen, linebacker out of Georgia... So CJ Allen at 20”
Went 53mocked at 2023.94Missmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- C.J. Allen
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 23.94
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 53
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 23.94
- predicted pick:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5
“New York Giants, Caleb Downs at number five overall, the Ohio State safety”
Went 11mocked at 577.11Closemock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 10
“And at number 10, Mansour Delaine goes to the Cincinnati Bengals.”
Went 6mocked at 1084.09Hitmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Mansoor Delane
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 6
“At number six, the Cleveland Browns take Monroe Freeling, the offensive tackle out of Georgia.”
Went 19mocked at 656.94Closemock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Monroe Freeling
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 56.94
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 19
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 56.94
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 13
“13, you get Jordan Tyson to the Rams.”
Went 8mocked at 1380.52Hitmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 13
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Jermod McCoy to be picked at number 12
“And number 12 is Jermoud McCoy, corner, Tennessee”
Went 101mocked at 122.12Missmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Jermod McCoy
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 2.12
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 101
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 2.12
- predicted pick:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Spencer Fano to be picked at number 14
“The, Baltimore Ravens, Spencer Fanon, the offensive lineman from Utah.”
Went 9mocked at 1480.52Hitmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Spencer Fano
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 17
“17, Caden Proctor, gigantic left tackle out of Bama, goes to the Lions.”
Went 12mocked at 1780.52Hitmock order 84.62 − 50 for a shuffle = 34.62 × 1 difficulty = +34.62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 34.62
- player:
- Kadyn Proctor
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 84.62
Francisco Mauigoa to be picked at number 11
“At number 11 is Francis Maui Noah, the right tackle of the dolphins or right tackle of Miami to the dolphins.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Position Order Calls1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Carnell Tate to be 1st receiver off the board
“seems to be becoming the kind of consensus first receiver off the board out of Ohio State”
100Hit100 − 9.48 naive = 90.52 × 1 difficulty = +90.52 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 36 at random averages 9.48
- skill:
- 90.52
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 9.48
- position:
- receiver
- class size:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Who this take is about
Dillon Thieneman, Minnesota Vikings, Ty Simpson, New York Jets, Kenyon Sadiq, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, David Bailey, Sonny Styles, Washington Commanders, Rueben Bain, Kansas City Chiefs, Carnell Tate, New Orleans Saints, Jeremiyah Love, Fernando Mendoza, C.J. Allen, Dallas Cowboys, Caleb Downs, New York Giants, Mansoor Delane, Cincinnati Bengals, Monroe Freeling, Cleveland Browns, Jordyn Tyson, Los Angeles Rams, Jermod McCoy, Spencer Fano, Baltimore Ravens, Kadyn Proctor, Detroit Lions, Francisco Mauigoa, Miami Dolphins
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Reviewing Week 7 college games, Campbell projects a slate of draft outcomes: Tennessee's Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick in 2026, Alabama's Bray Hubbard as a Day 2 pick and Yhonzae Pierre as a potential first-rounder, Jeremiah Smith as one of the very first players drafted, Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in the 2027 draft, Colin Simmons and Trevor Goosby as top-10 picks, and Jadan Baugh as a first-round pick.