Pat Fitzmaurice#8 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 13, 2025
Fitzmaurice expects Detroit to blow out Chicago, has aggressively moved Breece Hall and Travis Etienne up their rest-of-season running back ranks (both RB14, with Omarion Hampton at RB13), sees Emeka Egbuka as a rest-of-season WR27, and believes Kenneth Walker will reclaim the lead role in Seattle's backfield.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Pat Fitzmaurice said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI just think the Lions are going to crush the Bears, and the Detroit running game is gonna have a big day.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - Week 2 Lineup Advice: Starts, Sleepers, Sits, Player Debates, and TD Calls (Ep. 1703)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidSep 13, 2025
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
- 1Detroit Lions to beat Bears“I just think the Lions are going to crush the Bears, and the Detroit running game is gonna have a big day.”
- 2Omarion Hampton to finish top 13 at his position, by fantasy points“I've got Hampton RB thirteen.”
- 3Emeka Egbuka to finish top 27 at his position, by fantasy points“Fits what do you think rest of the season? ... Wide receiver twenty seven”
- 4Kenneth Walker III to be 1st on the depth chart“I think the balance of power in the backfield probably shifts back towards Walker in the coming weeks.”
- 5Breece Hall to finish top 14 at his position, by fantasy points“Hall was running back sixteen in my preseason rankings. Now he's up to fourteen in the rest of season rankings”
- 6Travis Etienne to finish top 14 at his position, by fantasy points“Etn was running back thirty four for me... And now I've got him at RB fourteen”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions to beat Bears1 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Omarion Hampton to finish top 13 at his position, by fantasy points2 | Positional Finishes | Finished #39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Emeka Egbuka to finish top 27 at his position, by fantasy points3 | Positional Finishes | Finished #18 | 25 | 0 | +48.5 | |
| Kenneth Walker III to be 1st on the depth chart4 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Breece Hall to finish top 14 at his position, by fantasy points5 | Positional Finishes | Finished #18 | 66.67 | 100 | −64.67 | |
| Travis Etienne to finish top 14 at his position, by fantasy points6 | Positional Finishes | Finished #9 | 58.33 | 0 | +113.17 | |
| 6 calls · 2 hits · 2 close calls · 2 misses · all settled | 58.3 | 50 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive6 checkable claims — 4 positional finishes, 1 depth chart call and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 58.3 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions to beat Bears
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.94difficulty=0skillClosing line (Sep 14): Lions by 6 · favorite pick, Lions 70%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 21-52
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
2Positional FinishesOmarion Hampton
Omarion Hampton to finish top 13 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #39called #13 · by fantasy points0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.94difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — the startable tier at RB
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 24
- actual finish:
- 39
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- predicted finish:
- 13
3Positional FinishesEmeka EgbukaTampa Bay Buccaneers
Emeka Egbuka to finish top 27 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #18called #27 · by fantasy points25Miss · naive 025this call−0a naive guess=25better than naive×1.94difficulty=+48.5skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 48.5
- player:
- Emeka Egbuka
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — the startable tier at WR
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 36
- actual finish:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- predicted finish:
- 27
4Depth Chart CallsKenneth Walker IIISeattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker III to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.94difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SEA
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Kenneth Walker III
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 17
5Positional FinishesBreece HallNew York Jets
Breece Hall to finish top 14 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #18called #14 · by fantasy points66.67Close · naive 10066.67this call−100a naive guess=−33.33worse than naive×1.94difficulty=−64.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −64.67
- player:
- Breece Hall
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 18
- actual finish:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- predicted finish:
- 14
6Positional FinishesTravis EtienneJacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne to finish top 14 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #9called #14 · by fantasy points58.33Close · naive 058.33this call−0a naive guess=58.33better than naive×1.94difficulty=+113.17skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 113.17
- player:
- Travis Etienne
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 58.33
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 39
- actual finish:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- predicted finish:
- 14
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
58.3naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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Tracy argues the Chiefs should address edge rusher and defensive tackle via the draft and use free agency on running back and wide receiver; they name Brian Robinson as their target, expects Kenneth Walker III to re-sign with Seattle, thinks Nick Bolton-style veterans like Jerry Tillery, Derek Nnadi and Mike Pennel shouldn't return, believes Bryan Cook is a top-10 safety the Chiefs can't afford, and predicts a quarterback (Trinidad Chambliss) will rocket up boards so more than one QB goes in the top 10.Pat Gustavson · Positional Finishes · Bijan Robinson · Close 75
Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out their own coaching landing spots.