Nate Tice#17 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 15, 2026
Tice picked the Packers, Texans, Bears, Ravens and Bills in Week 6 games, expected Caleb Williams and Michael Penix to be back on the field, and said they now have the Patriots winning the AFC East.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast)Hear the original
What Nate Tice said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI will go Packers here.
- Where it was said
- Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Week 6 preview & bold predictions: Jordan Love vs. Dak Prescott, can Falcons stop Caleb Williams?
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 15
- PlayedOct 18
- GradedOct 18–19
- 1Green Bay Packers to beat Cowboys“Of the four units, they're the worst units. I will go Packers here.”
- 2Baltimore Ravens to beat Browns“Yeah. I'm taking the Ravens... I'm going with the Ravens.”
- 3Chicago Bears to beat Falcons“I am going Bears, but that's the thing. Falcons have kinda really earned my respect”
- 4Houston Texans to beat Jaguars“I'm also going Texans and not in a way against the Jags because I still think the Jags are one of the best teams.”
- 5New England Patriots to win the division“So I I went from interested in the patriots. Oh, yeah. Playoff team. I happen to win AFC East... to now. I'm like, hey. No. I think they stack up very well with the top of the AFC.”
- 6Availability Calls“Falcons offense, I think Michael Penick is playing. I I believe he practiced with the rib injury. (Week 6)”
- 7Availability Calls“now Cale Williams trending towards playing. I think he is playing. (Week 6 vs Falcons)”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers to beat Cowboys1 | Game Outcome Picks | Packers 23–13 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Baltimore Ravens to beat Browns2 | Game Outcome Picks | Browns 13–10 | 0 | 100 | −172 | |
| Chicago Bears to beat Falcons3 | Game Outcome Picks | Bears 31–23 | 100 | 0 | +172 | |
| Houston Texans to beat Jaguars4 | Game Outcome Picks | Texans 34–31 | 100 | 0 | +172 | |
| New England Patriots to win the division5 | Division Winners | — | — | — | — | |
| “Falcons offense, I think Michael Penick is playing. I I believe…”6 | Availability Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| “now Cale Williams trending towards playing. I think he is…”7 | Availability Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 7 calls · 3 hits · 1 miss · 3 waiting | 75 | 50 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive7 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 2 availability calls and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 75 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to beat Cowboys
What happenedPackers 23–13Cowboys at Packers100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.72difficulty=0skillClosing line (Oct 18): Cowboys by 1.5 · a toss-up, Cowboys 51%, Packers 49%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 13-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
2Game Outcome PicksBaltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to beat Browns
What happenedBrowns 13–10Ravens at Browns0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.72difficulty=−172skillClosing line (Oct 18): Ravens by 3 · favorite pick, Ravens 60%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CLE
- score:
- 10-13
- skill:
- −172
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CLE
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
3Game Outcome PicksChicago Bears
Chicago Bears to beat Falcons
What happenedBears 31–23Bears at Falcons100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.72difficulty=+172skillClosing line (Oct 18): Bears by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bears 52%, Falcons 48%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 31-23
- skill:
- 172
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
4Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans
Houston Texans to beat Jaguars
What happenedTexans 34–31Texans at Jaguars100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.72difficulty=+172skillClosing line (Oct 18): Jaguars by 2.5 · underdog pick, Texans 44%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 34-31
- skill:
- 172
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
5Division WinnersNew England Patriots
New England Patriots to win the division
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Availability CallsMichael Penix Jr.Atlanta Falcons
“Falcons offense, I think Michael Penick is playing. I I believe he practiced with the rib injury. (Week 6)”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
7Availability CallsCaleb WilliamsChicago Bears
“now Cale Williams trending towards playing. I think he is playing. (Week 6 vs Falcons)”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
75naive 50
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
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More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
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