Dan Parr· Oct 10, 2026
Parr picked every Week 5 game with scores, leaning on Chicago's ground game at Lambeau, Seattle's defense against the unbeaten 49ers, and the Rams handling Buffalo on Monday night.
“I need to see a defense slow down Ben Johnson's running game before I pick against the Bears.”
published in writing · read the original →
15 checkable claims — 15 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 15 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
14 of 15 have settled so far, averaging 62.8 out of 100, against 46.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Eagles at Jaguars 33 calls
- Giants at Commanders 17 calls
- Texans at Titans 25 calls
- Colts at Steelers 21 calls
- Browns at Jets 19 calls
- Bears at Packers 49 calls
- Vikings at Saints 27 calls
- Raiders at Patriots 28 calls
- Bengals at Dolphins 16 calls
- Broncos at Chargers 34 calls
- 49ers at Seahawks 60 calls
- Lions at Cardinals 24 calls
- Ravens at Falcons 21 calls
- Bills at Rams 41 calls
15 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
- Score PredictionsLos Angeles RamsOct 10, 2026
Los Angeles Rams 31 — Buffalo Bills 27
“D. Parr Los Angeles Rams 31-27”
Close · 48Scored 47.62a naive guess scored 43.52+7.3 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 37-34
- skill:
- 7.3
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 47.62
- baseline:
- 43.52
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.28
- predicted margin:
- 4
Closing line (Oct 12): Rams by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 31–27 calls a bigger Rams win (by 4) and more points (58).
- Score PredictionsDetroit LionsOct 10, 2026
Detroit Lions 32 — Arizona Cardinals 26
“D. Parr Detroit Lions 32-26”
Close · 57Scored 57.14a naive guess scored 0+101.71 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 45-21
- skill:
- 101.71
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 57.14
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.32
- predicted margin:
- 6
Closing line (Oct 11): Lions by 5.5, total 55.5 · this 32–26 calls a bigger Lions win (by 6) and more points (58).
- Score PredictionsAtlanta FalconsOct 10, 2026
Atlanta Falcons 26 — Baltimore Ravens 19
“D. Parr Atlanta Falcons 26-19”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 34.1+28.31 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 30-23
- skill:
- 28.31
- they picked:
- ATL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 34.1
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.32
- predicted margin:
- 7
Closing line (Oct 11): Falcons by 3.5, total 44.5 · this 26–19 calls a bigger Falcons win (by 7) and more points (45).
- Score PredictionsDenver BroncosOct 10, 2026
Denver Broncos 24 — Los Angeles Chargers 20
“D. Parr Denver Broncos 24-20”
Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 36.48+104.59 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 23-17
- skill:
- 104.59
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 95.24
- baseline:
- 36.48
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.32
- predicted margin:
- 4
Closing line (Oct 11): Broncos by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Broncos win (by 4) and more points (44).
- Score PredictionsSeattle SeahawksOct 10, 2026
Seattle Seahawks 24 — San Francisco 49ers 20
“D. Parr Seattle Seahawks 24-20”
Close · 48Scored 47.62a naive guess scored 43.62+7.12 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 32-29
- skill:
- 7.12
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 47.62
- baseline:
- 43.62
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.32
- predicted margin:
- 4
Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 4) and fewer points (44).
- Score PredictionsNew York GiantsOct 10, 2026
New York Giants 23 — Washington Commanders 21
“D. Parr New York Giants 23-21”
Close · 70Scored 70.24a naive guess scored 72.91-4.75 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 27-27
- skill:
- −4.75
- they picked:
- NYG
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 70.24
- baseline:
- 72.91
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 2
Closing line (Oct 11): Commanders by 3.5, total 41.5 · this 23–21 calls a Giants win (by 2; the line gave the Giants 38%) and more points (44).
- Score PredictionsMinnesota VikingsOct 10, 2026
Minnesota Vikings 20 — New Orleans Saints 17
“D. Parr Minnesota Vikings 20-17”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 28.28+97.99 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 23-13
- skill:
- 97.99
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 28.28
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 3
Closing line (Oct 11): Vikings by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 20–17 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 3) and fewer points (37).
- Score PredictionsCincinnati BengalsOct 10, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals 20 — Miami Dolphins 13
“D. Parr Cincinnati Bengals 20-13”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 35.42+114.94 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 31-24
- skill:
- 114.94
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 35.42
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 7
Closing line (Oct 11): Bengals by 7, total 44.5 · this 20–13 calls the line’s margin (Bengals by 7) and fewer points (33).
- Score PredictionsHouston TexansOct 10, 2026
Houston Texans 23 — Tennessee Titans 14
“D. Parr Houston Texans 23-14”
Close · 67Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 0+118.67 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 26-3
- skill:
- 118.67
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 9
Closing line (Oct 11): Texans by 6.5, total 37.5 · this 23–14 calls a bigger Texans win (by 9) and fewer points (37).
- Score PredictionsPittsburgh SteelersOct 10, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 — Indianapolis Colts 18
“D. Parr Pittsburgh Steelers 21-18”
Close · 79Scored 78.57a naive guess scored 73.52+8.99 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 22-34
- skill:
- 8.99
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 78.57
- baseline:
- 73.52
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 3
Closing line (Oct 11): Steelers by 3, total 41.5 · this 21–18 calls the line’s margin (Steelers by 3) and fewer points (39).
- Score PredictionsChicago BearsOct 10, 2026
Chicago Bears 27 — Green Bay Packers 21
“D. Parr Chicago Bears 27-21”
Miss · 7Scored 7.14a naive guess scored 50-76.29 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 7-31
- skill:
- −76.29
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 7.14
- baseline:
- 50
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 6
Closing line (Oct 11): Bears by 1.5, total 46.5 · this 27–21 calls a bigger Bears win (by 6) and more points (48).
- Score PredictionsCleveland BrownsOct 10, 2026
Cleveland Browns 19 — New York Jets 17
“D. Parr Cleveland Browns 19-17”
Close · 43Scored 42.86a naive guess scored 90.19-84.25 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 12-17
- skill:
- −84.25
- they picked:
- CLE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 42.86
- baseline:
- 90.19
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 2
Closing line (Oct 11): Jets by 2.5, total 38.5 · this 19–17 calls a Browns win (by 2; the line gave the Browns 44%) and fewer points (36).
- Score PredictionsNew England PatriotsOct 10, 2026
New England Patriots 28 — Las Vegas Raiders 26
“D. Parr New England Patriots 28-26”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 17-45
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 2
Closing line (Oct 11): Patriots by 3.5, total 45.5 · this 28–26 calls a closer game (Patriots by 2) and more points (54).
- Score PredictionsJacksonville JaguarsOct 10, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 — Philadelphia Eagles 14
“D. Parr Jacksonville Jaguars 23-14”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 96.54-23.5 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 17-19
- skill:
- −23.5
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 96.54
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.55
- predicted margin:
- 9
Closing line (Oct 11): Jaguars by 7.5, total 41.5 · this 23–14 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 9) and fewer points (37).
- Score PredictionsDallas CowboysOct 10, 2026
Dallas Cowboys 30 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
“D. Parr Dallas Cowboys 30-20”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Jack MarkowskiRoster Spot Calls · Brandon SmithMiss · 0Markowski argues the Steelers should move on from Tyreek Hill given his injury and possible NFL discipline, and names promoting practice-squad receiver Brandon Smith to the 53-man roster as the most obvious way Pittsburgh addresses its receiver need.
- Adam CarlsonTrade and Signing Calls · Jordan AddisonMiss · 0Carlson names three Vikings he expects could be traded before the end of September: quarterback J.J. McCarthy, wide receiver Jordan Addison and linebacker Ivan Pace.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 48Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Bills in the Week 5 Monday night game, projecting a 28-24 final score as Los Angeles' Nacua-Adams-Williams trio proves too much for Buffalo's defense.
- Anthony "Tone Digz" DiGuilioGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Picked the Rams to beat the Bills on Monday night because of their defense.
- Darius ButlerGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Said Brian Flores could be Coach of the Year for what he is doing with the Vikings defense, and picked the Rams to beat the Bills on Monday night with Stafford outplaying Josh Allen.
- Pat McAfeeGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Picked the Rams to beat the Bills in the Monday night game at SoFi Stadium.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Dajani picked the Bills to beat the Rams 30-27 on Monday night.
- Gennaro FiliceScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 95Filice picked every Week 5 game with scores, backing Cincinnati in a closer-than-expected game at Miami, the Patriots in a low-scoring home win, Houston to finally get off the schneid in Tennessee, and upsets by the Saints, Jets, Packers and Bills.
- Bobby KownackScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 90Kownack picked all Week 5 games with scores, including the Browns winning at the Jets to reach 4-1, the Broncos handling the Chargers, and the Giants upsetting Washington.
- Pat FitzmauriceScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Fitzmaurice predicted a 34-31 Bills win over the Rams, suggested the Packers would again blow a lead to the Bears, and said Drake Maye is a high-end to mid-range QB1 going forward.
- Derek BrownScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Brown picked the Browns to beat the Jets and the Bears to beat the Packers, forecast a 31-28 Bills win over the Rams on Monday night, and made several Week 5 availability calls — doubting Tee Higgins, Lamar Jackson, Stefon Diggs and Terry McLaurin while expecting Ja'Marr Chase to play.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Dajani lays out projected final scores for every Week 5 game he covers, including Jacksonville handling Philadelphia, Pittsburgh bouncing back at home against Indianapolis, and Cleveland winning outright in New York.