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Don GonyeaOct 28, 2022

Discussing Pennsylvania, they characterized the governor's race as uncompetitive and likely a comfortable victory for Democrat Josh Shapiro over Republican Doug Mastriano, whom they described as too hardline for the state.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The NPR Politics PodcastHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Josh Shapiro wonWhat happenedcertified result
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Don Gonyea said

a potentially easy win for Josh Shapiro, the Democrat
Our reading: Josh Shapiro (the Democrat) to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
Where it was said
The NPR Politics Podcast
The episode
Pelosi's Spouse Attacked, Pennsylvania Senate, Train Labor Dispute
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidOct 28, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Josh Shapiro (the Democrat) to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

    What happenedJosh Shapiro woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.01difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2022-governor-pa
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2022-governor
    who won:
    Josh Shapiro
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Josh Shapiro
    days before the vote when called:
    10
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

The race in this take

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More race winners

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