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Spencer KimballNov 3, 2026

Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there.

Said on air, transcribed by us · RealClearPolitics PodcastHear the original

0 of 1calls landed1 miss · 2 waiting
0Average accuracyout of 100, across 1 call
0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
1Races calledevery call on each below
2Waitingnot graded yet

What Spencer Kimball said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
So we weighted it based and and pulled it based on what we saw in 2020 and feel pretty comfortable that Collins will hold on up there.
Spencer Kimball, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
RealClearPolitics Podcast
The episode
Final Midterm Predictions
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidNov 3
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10
  1. 1Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine“we weighted it based and and pulled it based on what we saw in 2020 and feel pretty comfortable that Collins will hold on up there”
  2. 2Seat Counts“I see the Democrats, as I told you last time, still over 20.”
  3. 3Seat Counts“I see the Democrats, as I told you last time, still over 20. You know, they're gonna be around the two thirty five, two forty mark.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine1Race WinnersTroy Jackson won000
“I see the Democrats, as I told you last time, still over 20.”2Seat Counts————
“I see the Democrats, as I told you last time, still over 20.…”3Seat Counts————
3 calls · 1 miss · 2 waiting00

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 seat counts and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

1 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Race Winners

    Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine

    What happenedTroy Jackson woncalled Susan Collins
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2026-senate-me
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Troy Jackson
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Susan Collins
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Seat Counts

    “I see the Democrats, as I told you last time, still over 20.”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Seat Counts

    “I see the Democrats, as I told you last time, still over 20. You know, they're gonna be around the two thirty five, two forty mark.”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

The race in this take

every call on each
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More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.