Buck Sexton#18 of 21 election pundits · Nov 3, 2026
Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up.
Said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton ShowHear the original
3 of 3calls landed3 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
100A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3Races calledevery call on each below
What Buck Sexton said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI'm feeling very good about Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody for tonight
- Where it was said
- The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
- The episode
- Hour 1 - Feelin' Good on Election Day
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidNov 3
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
- 1Byron Donalds to win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election“I think the red wall of Florida... is going to hold and hold firm. I'm feeling very good about Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody for tonight”
- 2Marsha Blackburn to win the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election“Well, that's going to be a fun one. That one's pretty much in the bag, so that's a safe one to go to.”
- 3Ashley Moody to win the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida“I'm feeling very good about Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody for tonight, as well as others”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds to win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election1 | Race Winners | Byron Donalds won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Marsha Blackburn to win the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election2 | Race Winners | Marsha Blackburn won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Ashley Moody to win the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida3 | Race Winners | Ashley Moody won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 3 calls · 3 hits · all settled | 100 | 100 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 3 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Byron Donalds to win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election
What happenedByron Donalds woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-governor-fl
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Byron Donalds
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 Florida gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Byron Donalds
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Marsha Blackburn to win the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election
What happenedMarsha Blackburn woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-governor-tn
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Marsha Blackburn
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Marsha Blackburn
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Ashley Moody to win the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida
What happenedAshley Moody woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-fl-special
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Ashley Moody
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ashley Moody
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 100
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Clay Travis · Race Winners · Hit 100
Clay Travis predicted a Republican sweep in Tennessee — Blackburn for governor, Hagerty for Senate and all nine House seats — said they were optimistic Republicans would flip the Michigan Senate seat from Democrats, and expected the Republican to win the New Hampshire governor's race.