Ben Shapiro· Nov 3, 2022

Shapiro forecast a strong Republican midterm: the GOP winding up with 52-54 Senate seats, picking up Georgia and Nevada at minimum, and gaining roughly 38-40 House seats with a near-certain House majority.

“It's effectively a 100% shot that Republicans take the majority in the house of representatives.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro Show · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 2 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 28 out of 100, against 67 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Control of CongressNov 3, 2022
“There is literally no way they will save the house majority. It's effectively a 100% shot that Republicans take the majority in the house of representatives.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
101
topic:
elections
in their words:
effectively a 100% shot
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 3, 2022
“It looks very likely that Republicans are gonna pick up at least 52, 53, maybe up to 54 seats.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 80-40.4 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−40.4
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
in their words:
at least 52, 53, maybe up to 54 seats
read as:
as written
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
40
baseline:
80
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
52 to 54
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 3, 2022
“If you look at sort of the nature of the wave, I'm predicting closer to 40 seats than to 30 seats. At this point, probably 38, 39 seats is not unlikely.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 55-55.55 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−55.55
topic:
elections
what happened:
9
in their words:
38-39
read as:
as written
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
0
baseline:
55
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
38 to 39
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2022
“it looks as though Republicans are likely to pick up Georgia and Nevada at a bare minimum”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2022
“it looks as though Republicans are likely to pick up Georgia and Nevada at a bare minimum”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.