Jim Geraghty· Nov 8, 2022

Garrity forecast a large Republican wave: a GOP House majority of roughly 229-241 seats, with his final call at 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats, and a 51-48 Republican Senate edge with Bolduc, Laxalt and Johnson winning while Georgia goes to a runoff.

“So put those down as my final prediction numbers, he said.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Tangle (podcast) · read the original →

9 checkable claims — 4 seat counts, 3 race winners and 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 9 have settled, averaging 43.9 out of 100, against 71.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

235They said

222What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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9 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“you end up with 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats. So put those down as my final prediction numbers”
Miss · 35Scored 35a naive guess scored 55-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
35
baseline:
55
they said:
235
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“With Bulldog, Laxalt, and Johnson winning, I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“With Bulldog, Laxalt, and Johnson winning, I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald C. Bolduc
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“my back of the envelope math envisioned a GOP house majority somewhere between two hundred twenty nine and two hundred forty one, and I'm sticking to that”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“my back of the envelope math envisioned a GOP house majority somewhere between two hundred twenty nine and two hundred forty one, and I'm sticking to that”
Close · 65Scored 65a naive guess scored 55+10 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
10
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
in their words:
somewhere between two hundred twenty nine and two hundred forty one
read as:
as written
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
65
baseline:
55
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
229 to 241
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage by the end of the week with Walker and Warnock headed to a runoff”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 80-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
60
baseline:
80
they said:
51
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“With Bulldog, Laxalt, and Johnson winning, I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage by the end of the week”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“you end up with 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats. So put those down as my final prediction numbers”
Miss · 35Scored 35a naive guess scored 55-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Democratic
seats after:
213
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
213
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
35
baseline:
55
they said:
200
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“I come out to a 51 to 48 GOP advantage by the end of the week”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.