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Jesse HolleyJul 14, 2026

Jesse Holley (Speaker 2) argues Fred Warner is the best player at their position in the NFL, more dominant relative to peers than Ja'Marr Chase or Myles Garrett. For their hot take they predict the Eagles fall apart, Nick Sirianni gets fired, and Cowboys DC Christian Parker turns the Dallas defense around and becomes the top candidate for the Eagles head coaching job next year. They also predict Caleb Downs makes the Pro Bowl.

Said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Hear the original

Waiting2 calls, none settled yet
—Average accuracynothing settled yet
—A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
0 of 2Settled2 still waiting
2Waitingnot graded yet

What Jesse Holley said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Christian Parker is going to be the number one candidate next year to be the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Jesse Holley, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
The episode
Is DeMarvion Overshown Already a Top-10 Linebacker? | DLLS Cowboys Podcast
The original
Hear the original
  1. 1Fred Warner to finish top 1 at his position, by sacks“Fred Warner might be better at his position than anyone else in the league at their position overall.”
  2. 2Caleb Downs to make Pro Bowl“Except downs. He's he's never done it before. Pro Bowl. Book it.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Fred Warner to finish top 1 at his position, by sacks1Positional Finishes————
Caleb Downs to make Pro Bowl2Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls————
2 calls · 2 waiting——

How each call scored

2 checkable claims — 1 positional finish and 1 pro bowl and all-pro call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against the record

positional finish
1They said
2822025 finish

Their call against what actually happened last time. Not yet settled.

  1. 1Positional FinishesFred Warner

    Fred Warner to finish top 1 at his position, by sacks

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  2. VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

Others on the same people

More pro bowl and all-pro calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.