Colin Cowherd#54 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 3, 2025

Cowherd's Blazing Five picks: Colts beat Raiders 28-20 and run away with the AFC South, Jets beat Cowboys 28-27, Broncos beat Eagles 24-23, Seahawks beat Buccaneers 28-23, and Cardinals blow out the Titans 31-13.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 5calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 3 misses · all settled

33.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

32.4A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5 of 5Settlednone still waiting

#54Colin Cowherd’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Colin Cowherd said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I think the Colts are really really talented... I think they're going to run away now with this division twenty eight to twenty Colts win.

Colin Cowherd, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
The episode: THE HERD - Hour 2 - Colin's Blazin' 5 NFL picks, thoughts on the Rams loss last night, Julian Edelman
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidOct 3, 2025
GradedAug 5–17, 2026

1Indianapolis Colts to win the division“I think they're going to run away now with this division”
2Arizona Cardinals 31 — Titans 13“I think we have a blowout on the horizon. Cardinals win at thirty one to thirteen.”
3Denver Broncos 24 — Eagles 23“I'm gonna take Denver to win close, low scoring game twenty four to twenty three.”
4New York Jets 28 — Cowboys 27“I think the Jets at home healthier win twenty eight, twenty seven, take the points.”
5Indianapolis Colts 28 — Raiders 20“I like the Colts at home to win and cover... twenty eight to twenty Colts win it won't feel this close.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Indianapolis Colts to win the division¹	Division Winners	—	0	0	0
Arizona Cardinals 31 — Titans 13²	Score Predictions	—	9.52	47.55	−67.69
Denver Broncos 24 — Eagles 23³	Score Predictions	—	92.86	45.3	+84.64
New York Jets 28 — Cowboys 27⁴	Score Predictions	—	16.67	19.11	−4.36
Indianapolis Colts 28 — Raiders 20⁵	Score Predictions	—	50	50	0
5 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 3 misses · all settled			33.8	32.4

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 4 score predictions and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 33.8 out of 100, against 32.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Division Winners Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts to win the division
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.78difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
IND
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
1.78
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
14
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
2Score Predictions Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals 31 — Titans 13
VerdictMiss
9.52Miss · naive 47.55
9.52this call47.55a naive guess−38.03worse than naive1.78difficulty−67.69skill
Closing line (Oct 5): Cardinals by 7.5, total 41.5 · this 31–13 calls a bigger Cardinals win (by 18) and more points (44).
How this was scored
score:
22-21
skill:
−67.69
they picked:
ARI
season:
2025
accuracy:
9.52
baseline:
47.55
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
1
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
18
Think this is wrong?
3Score Predictions Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos 24 — Eagles 23
VerdictHit
92.86Hit · naive 45.3
92.86this call45.3a naive guess47.56better than naive1.78difficulty+84.64skill
Closing line (Oct 5): Eagles by 3.5, total 44.5 · this 24–23 calls a Broncos win (by 1; the line gave the Broncos about 1 in 3 (34%)) and more points (47).
How this was scored
score:
21-17
skill:
84.64
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
45.3
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
4
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
1
Think this is wrong?
4Score Predictions New York Jets
New York Jets 28 — Cowboys 27
VerdictMiss
16.67Miss · naive 19.11
Closing line (Oct 5): Jets by 1.5, total 48.5 · this 28–27 calls a closer game (Jets by 1) and more points (55). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.
How this was scored
score:
37-22
skill:
−4.36
they picked:
NYJ
season:
2025
accuracy:
16.67
baseline:
19.11
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
15
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
1
Think this is wrong?
5Score Predictions Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts 28 — Raiders 20
VerdictClose
50Close · naive 50
50this call50a naive guess0better than naive1.78difficulty0skill
Closing line (Oct 5): Colts by 7, total 46.5 · this 28–20 calls a bigger Colts win (by 8) and more points (48). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.
How this was scored
score:
6-40
skill:
0
they picked:
IND
season:
2025
accuracy:
50
baseline:
50
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
34
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
2.03
predicted margin:
8
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
33.8naive 32.4