David Harrison#57 of 87 NFL pundits · Mar 16, 2026
In their first post-free-agency mock draft, Harrison has the Commanders trade back with Cincinnati and select Carnell Tate at No. 10, Chris Johnson at No. 41, Jagger Burton at No. 147, Trey Moore at No. 187, VJ Payne at No. 209 and Vincent Anthony Jr. in the seventh round.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast)Hear the original
What David Harrison said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromCarnell Tate, wide receiver out of Ohio State, come becomes the first pick in our first mock draft Monday following free agency.
- Where it was said
- Locked On Commanders (podcast)
- The episode
- POST-FREE AGENCY: Commanders Mock Draft UNVEILS Carnell Tate Gamble—Will It PAY OFF After FA Moves?
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidMar 16
- GradedOct 1
- 1Chris Johnson to be picked at number 41“Second round, forty first overall pick is when we take Chris Johnson... Chris Johnson, cornerback out of San Diego State”
- 2Victor Payne to be picked at number 209“pick two zero nine, we come back, Vijay Payne... VJ Payne, safety out of Kansas State”
- 3Carnell Tate to be picked at number 10“which means that pick number 10, we take wide receiver Carnell Tate in the first round”
- 4Jager Burton to be picked at number 147“Jagger Burton, center out of Kentucky is sitting there... he's sitting there at one forty seven for us to take, and we absolutely take Jagger Burton”
- 5Trey Moore to be picked at number 187“sixth round, pick number one eighty seven linebacker Trey Moore out of Texas comes in”
- 6Vincent Anthony to be picked “seventh round” (picks 217–257)“We wrap it all up with a potential big edge of the future, you know, developmental seventh round guy, Vincent Anthony Junior, edge rusher out of Duke.”
- 7Chig Okonkwo to be 1st on the depth chart“Tight end position, Chikokonkwo, I think, still comes in as kinda your top guy.”
- 8Trey Amos to be 1st on the depth chart“Trey Amos as your starting. Opposite boundary corner.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson to be picked at number 411 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 27 | 54.53 | 50 | +45 | |
| Victor Payne to be picked at number 2092 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 228 | 43.91 | 50 | +45 | |
| Carnell Tate to be picked at number 103 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 4 | 77.11 | 50 | +45 | |
| Jager Burton to be picked at number 1474 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 153 | 77.11 | 50 | +45 | |
| Trey Moore to be picked at number 1875 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 130 | 8.46 | 50 | +45 | |
| Vincent Anthony to be picked “seventh round” (picks 217–257)6 | Mock Draft Picks | Went undrafted | 0 | 50 | +45 | |
| Chig Okonkwo to be 1st on the depth chart7 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Trey Amos to be 1st on the depth chart8 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 8 calls · 4 close calls · 2 misses · 2 waiting | 43.5 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks and 2 depth chart calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
6 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 43.5 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Chig Okonkwo · 2026 season7 calls from 5 pundits between 1 and 3. David Harrison said 1. the room's median is 2. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksChris JohnsonWashington Commanders
Chris Johnson to be picked at number 41
What happenedWent 27mocked at 4154.53Close · naive 5095this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=45better than naive×1difficulty=+45skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Chris Johnson
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 54.53
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 54.53
- predicted pick:
- 41
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
2Mock Draft PicksVictor PayneWashington Commanders
Victor Payne to be picked at number 209
What happenedWent 228mocked at 20943.91Close · naive 5095this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=45better than naive×1difficulty=+45skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Victor Payne
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 43.91
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 228
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 43.91
- predicted pick:
- 209
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
3Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateWashington Commanders
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 10
What happenedWent 4mocked at 1077.11Close · naive 5095this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=45better than naive×1difficulty=+45skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
4Mock Draft PicksJager BurtonWashington Commanders
Jager Burton to be picked at number 147
What happenedWent 153mocked at 14777.11Close · naive 5095this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=45better than naive×1difficulty=+45skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Jager Burton
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 153
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 147
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
5Mock Draft PicksTrey MooreWashington Commanders
Trey Moore to be picked at number 187
What happenedWent 130mocked at 1878.46Miss · naive 5095this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=45better than naive×1difficulty=+45skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Trey Moore
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 8.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 130
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 8.46
- predicted pick:
- 187
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
6Mock Draft PicksVincent AnthonyWashington Commanders
Vincent Anthony to be picked “seventh round” (picks 217–257)
What happenedWent undrafted0Miss · naive 5095this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=45better than naive×1difficulty=+45skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Vincent Anthony
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; later signed with SF
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- seventh round (picks 217–257)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
7Depth Chart CallsChig OkonkwoWashington Commanders
Chig Okonkwo to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
8Depth Chart CallsTrey AmosWashington Commanders
Trey Amos to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
43.5naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Gilberto Manzano · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Manzano picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.