Ben Shapiro· Nov 8, 2022

On election-day 2022, Shapiro predicted Republicans would end up with 53 to 54 Senate seats and thus a Senate majority, with Blake Masters winning Arizona and Adam Laxalt taking Nevada, while expressing doubt about New Hampshire. He also said Brian Kemp would crush Stacey Abrams in Georgia's governor's race and that a red wave would carry Republicans in the House.

“I'm gonna say that Republicans win 53 to 54 seats here.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro Show · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 3 race winners, 2 control of congress and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 6 have settled, averaging 36.7 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“I think the Republicans will end up with at least 52. I think 53 or 54. ... I'm gonna say that Republicans win 53 to 54 seats here.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 80-60 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−60
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
in their words:
53 to 54 seats
read as:
as written
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
20
baseline:
80
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
53 to 54
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“Brian Kemp is gonna win by a thousand points over Stacey Abrams.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brian Kemp
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I think laxalt takes the Nevada senate seat.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“Join us and celebrate the red wave. Yes. I believe there will be a red wave tonight.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“Obviously, that means Blake Masters and Don Baldock in New Hampshire. ... Arizona, I could see carry like dragging Blake Masters over the finish line in Arizona.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-az
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mark Kelly
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Blake Masters
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“I think the Republicans will end up with at least 52. I think 53 or 54.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.