Lance Zierlein#11 of 87 NFL pundits · Jul 17, 2025
Filling in for Daniel Jeremiah, Lance Z said Derek Stingley has passed Sauce Gardner and is now the second-best cornerback in the league behind Patrick Surtain; they expect Dak Prescott to return to the executives' top-10 quarterback list next year, doubts Caleb Williams cracks the top 10 but sees a big bounce-back for them and the Bears, and thinks Washington gets an extension done with Terry McLaurin.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
What Lance Zierlein said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think Dak gets back on that list in twenty twenty six when they do that list list again.
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- Jets Lock In Stars, Execs’ Top 10 QBs, and the 2nd-Round Contract Standoff
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJul 17, 2025
- GradedAug 7–14, 2026
- 1Derek Stingley Jr. to finish top 2 at his position, by interceptions“But Stingley I think has surpassed Sauce. Gardner's a top corner out of that class and really I think the second best corner to Patrick Sir Tam.”
- 2Dak Prescott to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards“I think Dak is the guy that makes it back on the list next year... I think he gets back on that list in twenty twenty six when they do that list list again.”
- 3Terry McLaurin to move to Washington Commanders“as long as the contract stuff doesn't cause that team to short circuit a little bit, which I don't think that will be the case. I think they'll get something done with McLaurin.”
- 4Chicago Bears to beat expectations“I think Caleb and the Bears are set for a big bounce, a big bounce.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Stingley Jr. to finish top 2 at his position, by interceptions1 | Positional Finishes | Finished #18 | 0 | 16.67 | −33.33 | |
| Dak Prescott to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards2 | Positional Finishes | Finished #3 | 41.67 | 0 | +83.33 | |
| Terry McLaurin to move to Washington Commanders3 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Chicago Bears to beat expectations4 | Surprise Team Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 4 calls · 1 close call · 1 miss · 2 waiting | 20.8 | 8.3 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 2 positional finishes, 1 surprise team call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 20.8 out of 100, against 8.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
1Positional FinishesDerek Stingley Jr.Houston Texans
Derek Stingley Jr. to finish top 2 at his position, by interceptions
What happenedFinished #18called #2 · by interceptions0Miss · naive 16.670this call−16.67a naive guess=−16.67worse than naive×2difficulty=−33.33skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −33.33
- player:
- Derek Stingley Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 16.67
- position:
- secondary
- ranked by:
- interceptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 8
- actual finish:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 2
2Positional FinishesDak PrescottDallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards
What happenedFinished #3called #10 · by passing yards41.67Close · naive 041.67this call−0a naive guess=41.67better than naive×2difficulty=+83.33skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 83.33
- player:
- Dak Prescott
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 41.67
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 31
- actual finish:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 10
3Trade and Signing CallsTerry McLaurinWashington Commanders
Terry McLaurin to move to Washington Commanders
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Surprise Team CallsChicago Bears
Chicago Bears to beat expectations
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
20.8naive 8.3
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Gilberto Manzano · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Manzano picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nick Wright · Positional Finishes · Puka Nacua · Close 75
Nick Wright picked the Ravens to beat Houston this weekend even with Lamar Jackson possibly out (leaning on Derrick Henry and Cooper Rush), the Chiefs to win in Jacksonville, and the Rams to beat the 49ers on Thursday night. They also laid out an AFC playoff field of Bills, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers and Colts, projected the Chiefs' receiver pecking order once Rashee Rice returns, and called Justin Jefferson the best receiver in football with Puka Nacua a top-five receiver.Rich Hribar · Positional Finishes · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Hribar published their 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how they prioritize drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.Chris Brockman · Positional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Hit 100
Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called their shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.Ryan Tracy · Positional Finishes · Bryan Cook · Miss 0
Tracy argues the Chiefs should address edge rusher and defensive tackle via the draft and use free agency on running back and wide receiver; they name Brian Robinson as their target, expects Kenneth Walker III to re-sign with Seattle, thinks Nick Bolton-style veterans like Jerry Tillery, Derek Nnadi and Mike Pennel shouldn't return, believes Bryan Cook is a top-10 safety the Chiefs can't afford, and predicts a quarterback (Trinidad Chambliss) will rocket up boards so more than one QB goes in the top 10.Pat Gustavson · Positional Finishes · Bijan Robinson · Close 75
Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out their own coaching landing spots.