Bakari SellersNov 6, 2022
Sellers predicted Democrats would hold the Senate and win the governorships of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with Wes Moore flipping Maryland.
Said on air, transcribed by us · State of the Union (CNN)Hear the original
5 of 5calls landed5 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
80A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Bakari Sellers said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromwe're gonna maintain the senate, and those governor's mansions really matter
- Where it was said
- State of the Union (CNN)
- The episode
- Exclusive interviews with: Chairwoman of the Republican National Committee Ronna McDaniel, and Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidNov 6, 2022
- Election DayNov 8, 2022
- GradedOct 10, 2026
- 1Democrats to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election“You're gonna have Pennsylvania. Those states matter.”
- 2Control of Congress“Well, although we probably won't take back the house or keep the house, we're gonna maintain the senate”
- 3Democrats to win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election“you're gonna see Democrats maintain or win governors' mansions in states that really matter. You're gonna have, Wisconsin.”
- 4Wes Moore to win the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election“And you're also gonna have Wes Moore, who's gonna flip Maryland.”
- 5Democrats to win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election“You're gonna have Michigan.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election1 | Race Winners | Josh Shapiro won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| “Well, although we probably won't take back the house or keep…”2 | Control of Congress | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Democrats to win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election3 | Race Winners | Tony Evers won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Wes Moore to win the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election4 | Race Winners | Wes Moore won | 100 | 0 | +100 | |
| Democrats to win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election5 | Race Winners | Gretchen Whitmer won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 5 calls · 5 hits · all settled | 100 | 80 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive5 checkable claims — 4 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 5 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Democrats to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
What happenedJosh Shapiro woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-governor-pa
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2022-governor
- who won:
- Josh Shapiro
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Josh Shapiro
- days before the vote when called:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
“Well, although we probably won't take back the house or keep the house, we're gonna maintain the senate”
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2022-senate
- who controls it:
- Democratic
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- they said:
- Democratic
- days before the vote when called:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
Democrats to win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
What happenedTony Evers woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-governor-wi
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2022-governor
- who won:
- Tony Evers
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Tony Evers
- days before the vote when called:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Wes Moore to win the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election
What happenedWes Moore woncertified result100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1difficulty=+100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-governor-md
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2022-governor
- who won:
- Wes Moore
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Wes Moore
- days before the vote when called:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Democrats to win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election
What happenedGretchen Whitmer woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-governor-mi
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2022-governor
- who won:
- Gretchen Whitmer
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Gretchen Whitmer
- days before the vote when called:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 80
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.