Keith Sanchez· Apr 6, 2026
As relayed by Harrison, Sanchez's latest mock draft has Carnell Tate going to Washington, Jordan Tyson as the first receiver off the board at No. 5 to the Giants, Makai Lemmon at 11 and Chris Brasel at 30 to Miami, Sonny Styles at No. 8 to New Orleans, and Caleb Downs at No. 13 to the Rams.
“Carnell Tate is who they picked for the Washington commanders there.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Commanders (podcast) · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 73.1 out of 100, against 44.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
positional finish1They said
2What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Jordyn Tyson to be 1st receiver off the board
“so he was the first receiver off the board”
Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 11.45+59.26 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 36 at random averages 11.45
- skill:
- 59.26
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 11.45
- position:
- receiver
- class size:
- 36
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 8
“There are Sonny Styles in their mock draft when number eight to the New Orleans, saints.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 88.57 against a shuffle’s 50+38.57 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 38.57
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 88.57
- Mock Draft PicksMakai LemonMiami DolphinsApr 6, 2026
Makai Lemon to be picked at number 11
“Makai Lemmon went number 11 to the Miami Dolphins”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Makai Lemon
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsLos Angeles RamsApr 6, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 13
“Caleb Downs, number 13 to the Los Angeles Rams”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 13
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
- Mock Draft PicksJordyn TysonNew York GiantsApr 6, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 5
“Jordan Tyson went number five to the New York Giants, so he was the first receiver off the board.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7
“Carnell Tate is who they picked for the Washington commanders there... So the watch mayors passed over Sonny Styles to get Carnell Tate.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
- Mock Draft PicksChris BrazzellMiami DolphinsApr 6, 2026
Chris Brazzell to be picked at number 30
“as did Chris Brasel, who also went to the Miami Dolphins at pick 30”
Miss · 10Scored 10.07 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 90 against a shuffle’s 50+40 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 40
- player:
- Chris Brazzell
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 10.07
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 83
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 10.07
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 90
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Nick WrightScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 33On his Week 3 pick show, Nick Wright gave straight-up final-score predictions for five games, calling blowouts by Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami, a Jacksonville home win over New England, a narrow New Orleans win over the Raiders and a low-scoring Baltimore win over Dallas in Brazil. He also called Seattle the best team in the NFL with the league's best defense.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.