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Jared Dubin· Oct 22, 2026

Dubin gave final-score picks for the same seven Week 7 games, backing the Bears, Steelers, 49ers, Ravens, Lions, Seahawks and Cowboys.

“I'll take Dallas to win, but I can't see the Cowboys blowing anyone out in their current state.”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 7 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 67.7 out of 100, against 51.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

The games in this take

7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Dallas Cowboys 24 — Eagles 20

    “Prediction: Cowboys 24, Eagles 20”

    Close · 69Scored 69.05a naive guess scored 8.32+101.41 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    38-21
    skill:
    101.41
    they picked:
    DAL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    69.05
    baseline:
    8.32
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.5
    predicted margin:
    4

    Closing line (Oct 26): Cowboys by 4.5, total 43.5 · this 24–20 calls a closer game (Cowboys by 4) and more points (44).

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  • Detroit Lions 34 — Packers 28

    “I lean toward the Lions because they can beat you both ways. … Prediction: Lions 34, Packers 28”

    Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 92.03+1.39 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    17-20
    skill:
    1.39
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    92.86
    baseline:
    92.03
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.35
    predicted margin:
    6

    Closing line (Oct 25): Lions by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 34–28 calls a bigger Lions win (by 6) and more points (62).

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  • Seattle Seahawks 20 — Chiefs 17

    “I'll take the Seahawks in a low-scoring game. … Prediction: Seahawks 20, Chiefs 17”

    Close · 67Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 58.69+13.32 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    3-20
    skill:
    13.32
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    66.67
    baseline:
    58.69
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.35
    predicted margin:
    3

    Closing line (Oct 25): Seahawks by 3, total 43.5 · this 20–17 calls the line’s margin (Seahawks by 3) and fewer points (37).

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  • San Francisco 49ers 26 — Falcons 16

    “Prediction: 49ers 26, Falcons 16”

    Close · 48Scored 47.62a naive guess scored 77.89-50.56 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    20-29
    skill:
    −50.56
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    47.62
    baseline:
    77.89
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    9
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.28
    predicted margin:
    10

    Closing line (Oct 25): 49ers by 2.5, total 49.5 · this 26–16 calls a bigger 49ers win (by 10) and fewer points (42).

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  • Pittsburgh Steelers 21 — Saints 17

    “Prediction: Steelers 21, Saints 17”

    Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 35.04+100.54 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    16-10
    skill:
    100.54
    they picked:
    PIT
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    95.24
    baseline:
    35.04
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.28
    predicted margin:
    4

    Closing line (Oct 25): Steelers by 3, total 43.5 · this 21–17 calls a bigger Steelers win (by 4) and fewer points (38).

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  • Baltimore Ravens 30 — Bengals 26

    “Prediction: Ravens 30, Bengals 26”

    Miss · 7Scored 7.14a naive guess scored 0+11.93 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    35-13
    skill:
    11.93
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    7.14
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    22
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.28
    predicted margin:
    4

    Closing line (Oct 25): Bengals by 3, total 46.5 · this 30–26 calls a Ravens win (by 4; the line gave the Ravens 41%) and more points (56).

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  • Chicago Bears 31 — Patriots 27

    “Prediction: Bears 31, Patriots 27”

    Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 86.37+14.8 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    24-30
    skill:
    14.8
    they picked:
    CHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    95.24
    baseline:
    86.37
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    0.28
    predicted margin:
    4

    Closing line (Oct 22): Bears by 3, total 50.5 · this 31–27 calls a bigger Bears win (by 4) and more points (58).

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