Field YatesFeb 19, 2026
In their latest mock draft, Yates has Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall to the Raiders (a pick they say can be etched in stone), the Jets taking edge rusher Arbel Reiss at No. 2, the Titans taking David Bailey in the first round, and the Cowboys selecting Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles at No. 12 as the first linebacker off the board.
Said on air, transcribed by us · NFL Live (podcast)Hear the original
4 of 5calls landed4 hits · 1 close call · all settled
83.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
43.6A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5 of 5Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Field Yates said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThere is one pick that we can write in stone right now... That is, of course, Fernando Mendoza to the Las Vegas Raiders at number one overall.
- Where it was said
- NFL Live (podcast)
- The episode
- 1 Week Away From the NFL Draft Combine
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidFeb 19
- GradedAug 14–Oct 1
- 1Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12“Field has Dallas taking a linebacker at number 12, Sonny Styles out of Ohio State.”
- 2Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“There is one pick that we can write in stone right now, etching stone. That is, of course, Fernando Mendoza to the Las Vegas Raiders at number one overall.”
- 3Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2“Field has the Jets and Titans going with edge rushers, Ohio State's Arbel Reiss, and Texas Tech's David Bailey... If Edge is the pick for the jets at number two, is Reese automatically the choice in your mind?”
- 4David Bailey to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“See here Field has the Jets and Titans going with edge rushers, Ohio State's Arbel Reiss, and Texas Tech's David Bailey.”
- 5Sonny Styles to be 1st linebacker off the board“He's the first linebacker off the board in fields mock.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Styles to be picked at number 121 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 7 | 80.52 | 50 | +50 | |
| Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 12 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | +50 | |
| Arvell Reese to be picked at number 23 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 5 | 87.81 | 50 | +50 | |
| David Bailey to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)4 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 2 | 100 | 50 | +50 | |
| Sonny Styles to be 1st linebacker off the board5 | Position Order Calls | — | 50 | 17.77 | +32.23 | |
| 5 calls · 4 hits · 1 close call · all settled | 83.7 | 43.6 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive5 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 83.7 out of 100, against 43.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pick12They said
7What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksSonny StylesDallas Cowboys
Sonny Styles to be picked at number 12
What happenedWent 7mocked at 1280.52Hit · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
2Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
What happenedWent 1mocked at 1100Hit · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
3Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York Jets
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
What happenedWent 5mocked at 287.81Hit · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
4Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyTennessee Titans
David Bailey to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 2100Hit · naive 50100this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=50better than naive×1difficulty=+50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
5Position Order CallsSonny StylesDallas Cowboys
Sonny Styles to be 1st linebacker off the board
VerdictClose50Close · naive 17.7750this call−17.77a naive guess=32.23better than naive×1difficulty=+32.23skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 26 at random averages 17.77
- skill:
- 32.23
- player:
- Sonny Styles
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 17.77
- position:
- linebacker
- class size:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 3
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
83.7naive 43.6
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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Building their projected Cowboys 53-man roster on defense, Jeff keeps five interior linemen (Kenny Clark, Quentin, Tito Obonia, LT Overton, Bullard), six edge rushers including Von Miller, Malachi Lawrence and Marist Liufau while cutting Sam Williams, four linebackers with Jayshawn Barham starting, six corners including rookie Devin Moore, and four safeties including Marquise Bell.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.