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Danny Parkins#75 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 11, 2026

Parkins picked the Giants to upset Dallas, the Steelers to beat Atlanta by two scores, the Bears to beat Carolina, the Bills to beat Houston and Denver to beat Kansas City outright; they also said Justin Herbert will win an MVP and had the Bengals as AFC North champs.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 4calls landed3 hits · 1 miss · 2 waiting
75Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
75A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#75Danny Parkins’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Danny Parkins said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
love the Giants to win that game out right?
Danny Parkins, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
First Things First (podcast)
The episode
49ers beat Rams, Bills vs. Texans preview, Matt Leinart joins, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks for Week 1
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidSep 11
  2. PlayedSep 13–14
  3. GradedSep 15–16
  1. 1Denver Broncos to beat Chiefs“I'm going five chips on the Denver Broncos. Another upset. Outright winner for Denver.”
  2. 2Buffalo Bills to beat Houston Texans“Two chips on the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen slays the Dragon that is the Houston Texans defense.”
  3. 3Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Atlanta Falcons“Cooper Rush gonna have a long day at the office. Steelers win that game by two scores.”
  4. 4New York Giants to beat Cowboys“Division game at night, home dog, love the Giants to win that game out right?... I'm picking the Giants straight up in an up set.”
  5. 5Cincinnati Bengals to win the division“We both had them in the AFC North Champs.”
  6. 6Justin Herbert to win MVP“I think that Justin Herbert will win an MVP.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Denver Broncos to beat Chiefs1Game Outcome PicksChiefs 31–100100−200
Buffalo Bills to beat Houston Texans2Game Outcome PicksBills 36–311000+200
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Atlanta Falcons3Game Outcome PicksSteelers 20–131001000
New York Giants to beat Cowboys4Game Outcome PicksGiants 28–201001000
Cincinnati Bengals to win the division5Division Winners————
Justin Herbert to win MVP6Award Picks————
6 calls · 3 hits · 1 miss · 2 waiting7575

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 1 award pick and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 75 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksDenver Broncos

    Denver Broncos to beat Chiefs

    What happenedChiefs 31–10Broncos at Chiefs
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill

    Closing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5 · underdog pick, Broncos 46%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    10-31
    skill:
    −200
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Houston Texans

    What happenedBills 36–31Bills at Texans
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 50%, Texans 50%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    36-31
    skill:
    200
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh Steelers

    Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Atlanta Falcons

    What happenedSteelers 20–13Falcons at Steelers
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Steelers by 6.5 · favorite pick, Steelers 72%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    PIT
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    PIT
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PIT
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksNew York Giants

    New York Giants to beat Cowboys

    What happenedGiants 28–20Cowboys at Giants
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Cowboys by 3 · underdog pick, Giants 40%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    NYG
    score:
    20-28
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NYG
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NYG
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Division WinnersCincinnati Bengals

    Cincinnati Bengals to win the division

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Award PicksJustin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers

    Justin Herbert to win MVP

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  7. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once

    75naive 75

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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