Erick-Woods Erickson· Oct 28, 2024

Erickson says his instinct is that the presidential race is leaning Republican, though he stresses the contest is close and either side could win. He also argues Republican early-vote dominance in Florida has put that state out of Democrats' reach.

“My gut is that the election is tilting toward the Republicans, but I need to emphasize again to you that Harris could win.”

published in writing · Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 28, 2024
“My gut is that the election is tilting toward the Republicans, but I need to emphasize again to you that Harris could win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
tilting toward the Republicans
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
8
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 28, 2024
“In Florida, Republicans have outpaced Democrats by so much that if Florida were all in the Eastern time zone, the state would be called as soon as the polls close on Election Night. There's just no way for Democrats to overcome what is happening to them there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
8
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.