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Tom Pelissero#5 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 22, 2025

Pellisero expects Cam Ward to go first overall to Tennessee and Travis Hunter second to Cleveland, and says the league consensus is that the third tier of quarterbacks — Quinn Ewers, Kyle McCord, Dillon Gabriel, Riley Leonard and Will Howard — will all be drafted between the third and fifth rounds.

Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · 5 waiting
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 7Settled5 still waiting
#5Tom Pelissero’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Tom Pelissero said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
We presume the cam Or goes number one to Tennessee. We think that Travis Hunter goes two to Cleveland.
Tom Pelissero, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Move the Sticks (podcast)
The episode
GMFB Tuesday Hour 1: QB Intrigue in NFL Draft, Top 150 Prospects, Angry Runs WATCH LIST
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidApr 22, 2025
  2. GradedAug 7, 2026
  1. 1Travis Hunter to be picked at number 2“We think that Travis Hunter goes two to Cleveland.”
  2. 2Cam Ward to be picked at number 1“We presume the cam Or goes number one to Tennessee.”
  3. 3Dillon Gabriel to be picked “somewhere between the third and fifth rounds”“It's Dylan Gabriel from Oregon... all those guys will go somewhere between the third and fifth rounds.”
  4. 4Kyle McCord to be picked “somewhere between the third and fifth rounds”“It's Kyle mccorda played at Ohio State and then led the nation and pass at Syracuse... all those guys will go somewhere between the third and fifth rounds.”
  5. 5Will Howard to be picked “somewhere between the third and fifth rounds”“Will Howard from Ohio State. I believe, based on my conversations around the league, all those guys will go somewhere between the third and fifth rounds.”
  6. 6Quinn Ewers to be picked “somewhere between the third and fifth rounds”“It's Quinn yours with the two college football playoffs at Texas... I believe, based on my conversations around the league, all those guys will go somewhere between the third and fifth rounds.”
  7. 7Riley Leonard to be picked “somewhere between the third and fifth rounds”“Riley Leonard from Notre Dame, and Will Howard from Ohio State. I believe... all those guys will go somewhere between the third and fifth rounds.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

7 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
2They said
2What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Mock Draft PicksTravis HunterCleveland Browns

    Travis Hunter to be picked at number 2

    What happenedWent 2mocked at 2
    100Hit · naive 50
    100this mock’s order50a shuffled mock50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Travis Hunter
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    2
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Mock Draft PicksCam WardTennessee Titans

    Cam Ward to be picked at number 1

    What happenedWent 1mocked at 1
    100Hit · naive 50
    100this mock’s order50a shuffled mock50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Cam Ward
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100
    Think this is wrong?
  3. 3Mock Draft PicksDillon Gabriel

    Dillon Gabriel to be picked “somewhere between the third and fifth rounds”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  4. 4Mock Draft PicksKyle McCord

    Kyle McCord to be picked “somewhere between the third and fifth rounds”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  5. 5Mock Draft PicksWill Howard

    Will Howard to be picked “somewhere between the third and fifth rounds”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  6. 6Mock Draft PicksQuinn Ewers

    Quinn Ewers to be picked “somewhere between the third and fifth rounds”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  7. 7Mock Draft PicksRiley Leonard

    Riley Leonard to be picked “somewhere between the third and fifth rounds”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  8. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    100naive 50

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