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WaltOct 6, 2026

Walt predicts the Cowboys will dominate a short-week Thursday night matchup against a Buccaneers team starting Jalon Daniels, forecasting a lopsided Dallas win by a final score of 38-17.

Published in writing · Walter FootballRead the original

19Miss · out of 100

Buccaneers 24–16What happenedcalled Cowboys by 21 · lost by 8

32.2A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge

19.05This callout of 100

−23.41Skillafter difficulty

What Walt said

Week 5 NFL Pick: Cowboys 38, Buccaneers 17

Our reading: Dallas Cowboys 38 — Buccaneers 17

Where it was published: Walter Football
The piece: NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2026 – Early Games
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 5
PlayedOct 8
GradedOct 9

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 19.1 out of 100, against 32.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Score Predictions Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys 38 — Buccaneers 17
What happenedBuccaneers 24–16called Cowboys by 21 · lost by 8
19.05Miss · naive 32.2
19.05this call32.2a naive guess−13.15worse than naive1.78difficulty−23.41skill
Closing line (Oct 8): Cowboys by 9.5, total 49.5 · this 38–17 calls a bigger Cowboys win (by 21) and more points (55).
How this was scored
score:
24-16
skill:
−23.41
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
19.05
baseline:
32.2
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.52
predicted margin:
21
Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Buccaneers at CowboysBuccaneers 24Cowboys 1628 calls →

Who this take is about

Dallas Cowboys

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.

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