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Michael SmerconishNov 6, 2022

Smerconish predicted Josh Shapiro would beat Doug Mastriano handily in Pennsylvania's governor race, while expecting a strong Republican night overall.

Said on air, transcribed by us · State of the Union (CNN)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Josh Shapiro wonWhat happenedcertified result
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Michael Smerconish said

Josh Shapiro, I think, is gonna win handily against Doug Mastriano
Our reading: Josh Shapiro to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
Where it was said
State of the Union (CNN)
The episode
Exclusive interviews with: Chairwoman of the Republican National Committee Ronna McDaniel, and Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidNov 6, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Josh Shapiro to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

    What happenedJosh Shapiro woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2022-governor-pa
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2022-governor
    who won:
    Josh Shapiro
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Josh Shapiro
    days before the vote when called:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

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