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Ben Shapiro#12 of 21 election pundits · Oct 12, 2026

Shapiro says that although the market odds and the state of the races point toward Republicans losing the Senate, they believe Republicans will hold their Senate majority, acknowledging they are an outlier in that view. They also say the Republican Senate candidate in New Jersey, Justin Murphy, will lose to Cory Booker.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro ShowHear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled
50Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
1Races calledevery call on each below
#12Ben Shapiro’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Ben Shapiro said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I think the Republicans are gonna maintain the senate.
Ben Shapiro, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Ben Shapiro Show
The episode
Ep. 2524 - I Watched All the Midterm Debates So You Don’t Have To
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidOct 12
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10
  1. 1Cory Booker to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Jersey“here, I have to give some props to a guy who's gonna lose. He's in New Jersey, so not a giant shock. But there is a GOP senate candidate named Justin Murphy, And he's debating Cory Booker”
  2. 2Control of Congress“there is a a better than average shot that Republicans are going to lose the senate, which, again, I don't think is actually going to happen. I think the Republicans are gonna maintain the senate. I know that I'm an outlier in this particular in this particular belief”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Cory Booker to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Jersey1Race WinnersCory Booker won1001000
“there is a a better than average shot that Republicans are…”2Control of Congress—000
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled5050

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Race Winners

    Cory Booker to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Jersey

    What happenedCory Booker woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.03difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-senate-nj
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Cory Booker
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in New Jersey
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Cory Booker
    days before the vote when called:
    21
    difficulty:
    1.03
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Control of Congress

    “there is a a better than average shot that Republicans are going to lose the senate, which, again, I don't think is actually going to happen. I think the Republicans are gonna maintain the senate. I know that I'm an outlier in this particular in this particular belief”

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.03difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-senate
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    21
    difficulty:
    1.03
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    50naive 50

The race in this take

every call on each
Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.