Ben Shapiro· Nov 2, 2024

Hosting a pre-election special with Republican Senate candidates, Shapiro predicted Republicans would pick up West Virginia with Jim Justice, and called Dave McCormick, Tim Sheehy and Bernie Moreno the next senators from Pennsylvania, Montana and Ohio respectively.

“That is Dave McCormack, the next senator from Pennsylvania.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro Show · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 4 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 4 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 2, 2024
“Presumably, they're gonna pick up the seat in West Virginia. ... considering Jim Justice is very likely to take the West Virginia Senate seat.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
in their words:
very likely
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2024
“Plus, Tim Sheehy is going to make an amazing senator from the state of Montana.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2024
“That is Dave McCormack, the next senator from Pennsylvania.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Dave McCormick
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2024
“Well, Bernie Moreno, obviously, big fan of what you're doing in the state of Ohio. You're the next senator from Ohio.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Bernard F. Moreno
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Bernard F. Moreno
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.