Saul says the presidential race is essentially a coin flip but concludes that Republicans' structural advantages mean Trump ultimately wins, and that Democrats will likely lose their Senate majority given how many seats they are defending.

2 checkable claims — 1 chamber control and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Chamber ControlOct 23, 2024

  “They're pulling ahead of Republicans battleground senate races, but will likely lose their majority because of how many seats they're defending.”

  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
  How this was scored

  right:

  yes

  election year:

  2024

  skill:

  102

  topic:

  elections

  in their words:

  will likely lose their majority

  result from:

  senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)

  chamber:

  2024-senate

  who controls it:

  Republican

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  0

  they said:

  Republican

  days before the vote when called:

  12

  difficulty:

  1.02

  the naive guess:

  the party in control going in keeps it

  Election Day:

  2024-11-05

  who controlled it before:

  Democratic

  Think this is wrong?

• Race WinnersOct 23, 2024

  “These are all significant and critical advantages, which is why I think Trump will ultimately win the election.”

  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
  How this was scored

  right:

  yes

  race:

  2024-president

  election year:

  2024

  skill:

  102

  topic:

  elections

  held going in by:

  Democratic

  result from:

  fec-2024-president

  who won:

  Donald Trump

  accuracy:

  100

  baseline:

  0

  race name:

  2024 U.S. presidential election

  decided in the:

  electoral-college

  they said:

  Donald Trump

  days before the vote when called:

  12

  difficulty:

  1.02

  the winner's party:

  Republican

  the naive guess:

  the party holding the seat keeps it

  Election Day:

  2024-11-05

  the result is:

  certified

  the party they named:

  Republican

  Think this is wrong?

More chamber control

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

• Erick-Woods EricksonChamber ControlHit · 100
  Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
• Carl CannonChamber ControlHit · 100
  Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
• Sam WangChamber ControlMiss · 0
  Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber.
• Henry OlsenChamber ControlHit · 100
  Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
• David PakmanChamber ControlHit · 100
  Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber.
• Erick-Woods EricksonChamber ControlHit · 100
  He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats.