Bill Simmons· Oct 30, 2026
Simmons named Seattle and Chicago as the two NFC teams he most believes in to reach the Super Bowl, projected roughly 10 wins for both Pittsburgh and Minnesota, expected Lamar Jackson back on the field this week, and picked Baltimore to beat Buffalo and New England to beat Miami.
“They are my bet my life teams in the NFC, to get there.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Bill Simmons Podcast (podcast) · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 2 conference champions, 2 game outcome picks, 2 season win totals and 1 availability call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the rest of the room on every one.
Where this call stands in the room
Pittsburgh Steelers · 2026 season · wins6 calls from 5 pundits between 9 wins and 12 wins. Bill Simmons said 10 wins. the room's median is 9 wins. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Ravens at Bills 23 calls
- Patriots at Dolphins 19 calls
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsOct 30, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Miami
“Miami probably won the one game they're gonna win this season, and this Pats team is a perfect matchup for them... I just am expecting us to beat Miami by one point... They'll win by three”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+161 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 24-19
- skill:
- 161
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 11
Closing line (Nov 1): Patriots by 7 · favorite pick, Patriots about 3 in 4 (74%).
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensOct 30, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to beat Bills
“I think the Ravens are actually gonna win. I don't believe in the Bills at all. But it's in Baltimore, so who knows?”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-161 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 10-36
- skill:
- −161
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.61
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 11
Closing line (Nov 1): Bills by 3 · underdog pick, Ravens 41%.
- Conference ChampionsSeattle SeahawksOct 30, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl
“I think Seattle and Chicago would be the two teams that I still believe... They are my bet my life teams in the NFC, to get there.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Season Win TotalsPittsburgh SteelersOct 30, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 10 wins
“You can kind of pretty easily patch together 10 wins for them even if they don't do anything.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Conference ChampionsChicago BearsOct 30, 2026
Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl
“I think Seattle and Chicago would be the two teams that I still believe... They are my bet my life teams in the NFC, to get there.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Availability CallsLamar JacksonBaltimore RavensOct 30, 2026
“Next one, Lamar Jackson. So ringer 107, he... They... He's gonna come up in a pick. I think he plays this week.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Season Win TotalsMinnesota VikingsOct 30, 2026
Minnesota Vikings to finish with 10 wins
“And I bolded all the games. I thought they would lose, and I got to seven. And seven would be a ten and seven... I get to 10 as well.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- John MiddlekauffDraft Bust Calls · Caleb WilliamsMiss · 0Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.
- Jeremy BrenerScore Predictions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brener picked the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in Week 9 by a multi-score margin, giving a final score of 27-13, and expressed confidence Seattle would be fine with Drew Lock starting at quarterback.
- Albert BreerGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9.
- Dave RichardGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Richard picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Pluym picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- AJ HawkConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
- Richard ShermanConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Sherman refused to pick the 49ers-Seahawks divisional game, calling it a pick'em that comes down to the last possession, but he picked Chicago over the Rams, Denver over Buffalo, and Houston 17-9 over New England, while reaffirming his preseason call of the Broncos reaching the Super Bowl.
- Champ BaileyConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Bailey picks the Broncos to beat the Bills in the divisional round, the Seahawks to beat the 49ers at home, and the Rams to beat the Bears; he then puts the Rams in the Super Bowl against Denver, with the Broncos winning their fourth championship.
- Brandon CarneyConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Carney sticks with the Rams as his Super Bowl winner, picks the Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks and Rams in the divisional round, and makes a series of head coaching landing-spot predictions plus fantasy takes on Colston Loveland.