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Jake ArthurOct 23, 2026

Arthur picked the Vikings to beat the Colts 23-13, saying they don't see a path for Indianapolis unless they win the turnover battle and run the ball effectively.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Colts (podcast)Hear the original

90Hit · out of 100
Vikings 16–10What happenedcalled Vikings by 10 · won by 6
85.04A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
90.48This callout of 100
+9.08Skillafter difficulty

What Jake Arthur said

So, I'm gonna give it to Minnesota. I'm thinking 23 to 13 feels right.
Our reading: Minnesota Vikings 23 — Colts 13
Where it was said
Locked On Colts (podcast)
The episode
PREDICTION: Can Indianapolis Colts Put MESS Behind Them, Upset Minnesota Vikings?
The original
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  1. SaidOct 23
  2. PlayedOct 25
  3. GradedOct 25

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 90.5 out of 100, against 85 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsMinnesota Vikings

    Minnesota Vikings 23 — Colts 13

    What happenedVikings 16–10called Vikings by 10 · won by 6
    90.48Hit · naive 85.04
    90.48this call85.04a naive guess5.44better than naive1.67difficulty+9.08skill

    Closing line (Oct 25): Vikings by 6.5, total 41.5 · this 23–13 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 10) and fewer points (36).

    How this was scored
    score:
    10-16
    skill:
    9.08
    they picked:
    MIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    90.48
    baseline:
    85.04
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.28
    predicted margin:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

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