Joe Marino#2 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 12, 2026

Marino ranks the 2026 edge rusher class for the Bills' draft board, putting Ruben Bain first with first-round grades on Bain, David Bailey and Malachi Lawrence, and assigns round-by-round grades down through LT Overton. They predict Bailey goes in the top 10 even though they don't see them as that caliber of prospect.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Bills (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 5calls landed3 hits · 2 misses · 2 waiting

65.2Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5 of 7Settled2 still waiting

#2Joe Marino’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Joe Marino said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

So my number one edge is Ruben Bayne out of Miami, and I have first round grades on Reuben Bain, David Bailey out of Texas Tech, and Malachi Lawrence out of Central Florida.

Joe Marino, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Locked On Bills (podcast)
The episode: EDGE Rankings: Buffalo Bills Should TARGET Malachi Lawrence as Top EDGE Option in 2026 NFL Draft
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidApr 12
GradedAug 14–18

1Derek Moore to be picked “day three grade, probably later in the fourth round” (picks 101–140)“So to me, day three grade, probably probably later in the fourth round is where I would value Derek Moore.”
2Akheem Mesidor to be picked “late first, early second round” (picks 1–64)“So I think of him as a as a late first, early second round, type prospect.”
3Romello Height to be picked “fourth round type prospect” (picks 101–140)“I think of him as an, as a fourth round type prospect.”
4David Bailey to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)“I would say David Bailey's probably gonna go in the top 10.”
5Malachi Lawrence to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“a first round grade, easy first round grade for me”
6Top Player Lists“So my number one edge is Ruben Bayne out of Miami, and I have first round grades on Reuben Bain, David Bailey out of Texas Tech, and Malachi Lawrence out of Central Florida... In terms of late first, early second round, I have Keldrick Falk out of Auburn and then Akeem Mesador out of Miami. Second round grades, Gabe Yakis or Aches out of Illinois... Zion Young out of Missouri, Cassius Howell out of Texas a and m, our Mason Thomas out of Oklahoma, TJ Parker out of Clemson... a late two early three on Deshaun Barham out of Michigan... third round grade out of Kieran Crawford out of Auburn and Joshua Joseph's out of Tennessee. Fourth round grades on Romello Height and Derek Moore... a late fourth, early fifth on Danny Dennis Sutton out of Penn State, and then a fifth round grade out of l on LT Overton out of Alabama.”
7Zion Young to be picked “day two grade”“So I think even more of a as a day two grade, good good football player”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Derek Moore to be picked “day three grade, probably later in the fourth round” (picks 101–140)¹	Mock Draft Picks	Went undrafted	0	50	—
Akheem Mesidor to be picked “late first, early second round” (picks 1–64)²	Mock Draft Picks	Went 22	100	50	—
Romello Height to be picked “fourth round type prospect” (picks 101–140)³	Mock Draft Picks	Went 70	26.11	50	—
David Bailey to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)⁴	Mock Draft Picks	Went 2	100	50	—
Malachi Lawrence to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)⁵	Mock Draft Picks	Went 23	100	50	—
“So my number one edge is Ruben Bayne out of Miami, and I have…”⁶	Top Player Lists	—	—	—	—
Zion Young to be picked “day two grade”⁷	Mock Draft Picks	—	—	—	—
7 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · 2 waiting			65.2	50

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

7 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

5 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 65.2 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick

day three grade, probably later in the fourth round (picks 101–140)They said

undraftedWhat happened

Their call against what actually happened.

1Mock Draft Picks Derek Moore
Derek Moore to be picked “day three grade, probably later in the fourth round” (picks 101–140)
What happenedWent undrafted
0Miss · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Derek Moore
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
undrafted
outcome:
went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
actual pick:
undrafted
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0
predicted pick:
day three grade, probably later in the fourth round (picks 101–140)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
2Mock Draft Picks Akheem Mesidor Miami Dolphins
Akheem Mesidor to be picked “late first, early second round” (picks 1–64)
What happenedWent 22
100Hit · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Akheem Mesidor
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
22
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
late first, early second round (picks 1–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
3Mock Draft Picks Romello Height
Romello Height to be picked “fourth round type prospect” (picks 101–140)
What happenedWent 70
26.11Miss · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Romello Height
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
26.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
70
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
26.11
predicted pick:
fourth round type prospect (picks 101–140)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
4Mock Draft Picks David Bailey
David Bailey to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
What happenedWent 2
100Hit · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
David Bailey
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
top 10 (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
5Mock Draft Picks Malachi Lawrence
Malachi Lawrence to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 23
100Hit · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Malachi Lawrence
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
23
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
6Top Player Lists
“So my number one edge is Ruben Bayne out of Miami, and I have first round grades on Reuben Bain, David Bailey out of Texas Tech, and Malachi Lawrence out of Central Florida... In terms of late first, early second round, I have Keldrick Falk out of Auburn and then Akeem Mesador out of Miami. Second round grades, Gabe Yakis or Aches out of Illinois... Zion Young out of Missouri, Cassius Howell out of Texas a and m, our Mason Thomas out of Oklahoma, TJ Parker out of Clemson... a late two early three on Deshaun Barham out of Michigan... third round grade out of Kieran Crawford out of Auburn and Joshua Joseph's out of Tennessee. Fourth round grades on Romello Height and Derek Moore... a late fourth, early fifth on Danny Dennis Sutton out of Penn State, and then a fifth round grade out of l on LT Overton out of Alabama.”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
7Mock Draft Picks Zion Young
Zion Young to be picked “day two grade”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
65.2naive 50