Nick Wright#49 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 19, 2025
On the MVP race, Wright argues the award will come down to Baker Mayfield or Patrick Mahomes, with Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford as the real competition, and rules out Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott.
Said on air or in an interview · What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast)Hear the original
What Nick Wright said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSo right now, to me, Patrick and Baker, their real competition would... The real competition demons is Josh and Stafford.
- Where it was said
- What's Wright? with Nick Wright (podcast)
- The episode
- What’s Wright - Best Of - Josh Allen & Bills in DANGER? LeBron James DISRESPECTED in player rankings, Mahomes or Baker NFL MVP? | Nick Wright
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidOct 19, 2025
- GradedAug 7, 2026
- 1Baker Mayfield to win MVP“I have Baker in the preseason at thirty five to one on hard Rock... I think Baker or Patrick to be able to get either one of them to win MVP at only minus one point fifty is a pretty solid bet.”
- 2Patrick Mahomes to win MVP“Every year I bet Patrick to win MVP... I think Baker or Patrick to be able to get either one of them to win MVP at only minus one point fifty is a pretty solid bet.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield to win MVP1 | Award Picks | Matthew Stafford won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Patrick Mahomes to win MVP2 | Award Picks | Matthew Stafford won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 calls · 2 misses · all settled | 0 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 2 award picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Award PicksBaker MayfieldTampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Baker Mayfield0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.67difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Baker Mayfield
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
2Award PicksPatrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Patrick Mahomes0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.67difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Patrick Mahomes
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
0naive 0
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Willie Colon · Award Picks · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Colon picked the Seahawks to win 24-14 with Sam Darnold as Super Bowl MVP.Danny Parkins · Award Picks · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Miss 0
Parkins picked Seattle to win 27-16 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Super Bowl MVP.