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Nick Wright· Oct 19, 2025

On the MVP race, Wright argues the award will come down to Baker Mayfield or Patrick Mahomes, with Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford as the real competition, and rules out Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott.

“So right now, to me, Patrick and Baker, their real competition would... The real competition demons is Josh and Stafford.”

said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

2 checkable claims — 2 award picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Award PicksBaker MayfieldTampa Bay BuccaneersOct 19, 2025

    Baker Mayfield to win MVP

    “I have Baker in the preseason at thirty five to one on hard Rock... I think Baker or Patrick to be able to get either one of them to win MVP at only minus one point fifty is a pretty solid bet.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Baker Mayfield
    season:
    2025
    winner:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Think this is wrong?

  • Award PicksPatrick MahomesKansas City ChiefsOct 19, 2025

    Patrick Mahomes to win MVP

    “Every year I bet Patrick to win MVP... I think Baker or Patrick to be able to get either one of them to win MVP at only minus one point fifty is a pretty solid bet.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Patrick Mahomes
    season:
    2025
    winner:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

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