Sean Spicer· Oct 23, 2024

Spicer said Nevada, the battleground he had been most worried about, is now solidly Trump's, and predicted Dave McCormick wins Pennsylvania's Senate race with Mike Rogers also winning in Michigan, while calling the Nebraska, Florida and Texas Senate seats safe for Republicans.

“Dave McCormick's gonna win.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 6 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 6 have settled, averaging 83.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“The one state where I was really nervous was Nevada and not so anymore... I I believe that's solidly in Trump's camp now.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
solidly in Trump's camp
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“Dave McCormick's gonna win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Dave McCormick
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“And the Republican side, you've got all of those three races. Nebraska, Florida, and Texas all shored up.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-ne
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
shored up
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Deb Fischer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Deb Fischer
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“Dave McCormick's gonna win. I think Mike Rogers in Michigan”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
-102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Elissa Slotkin
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Rogers
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“And the Republican side, you've got all of those three races. Nebraska, Florida, and Texas all shored up.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
shored up
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Rick Scott
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Rick Scott
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 23, 2024
“And the Republican side, you've got all of those three races. Nebraska, Florida, and Texas all shored up.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
shored up
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ted Cruz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Cruz
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.