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Jared Dubin· Oct 29, 2026

Dubin predicted final scores for the same eight Week 8 games, taking the Packers, Bills, Lions, Steelers, Falcons, Chiefs, Commanders and Seahawks to win.

“I trust Jaylen Warren and Co. more than I do the Browns at this point.”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

8 checkable claims — 8 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 8 have settled, averaging 57.1 out of 100, against 62.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

8 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Seattle Seahawks 24 — Bears 20

    “Prediction: Seahawks 24, Bears 20”

    Miss · 19Scored 19.05a naive guess scored 10.88+13.15 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    34-17
    skill:
    13.15
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    19.05
    baseline:
    10.88
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    11
    naive home margin:
    0.57
    predicted margin:
    4

    Closing line (Nov 2): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 4) and fewer points (44).

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  • Washington Commanders 17 — Eagles 13

    “Prediction: Commanders 17, Eagles 13”

    Close · 69Scored 69.05a naive guess scored 61.23+12.59 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    10-27
    skill:
    12.59
    they picked:
    WAS
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    69.05
    baseline:
    61.23
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    11
    naive home margin:
    0.72
    predicted margin:
    4

    Closing line (Nov 1): Commanders by 6, total 40.5 · this 17–13 calls a closer game (Commanders by 4) and fewer points (30).

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  • Kansas City Chiefs 21 — Broncos 13

    “Prediction: Chiefs 21, Broncos 13”

    Close · 40Scored 40.48a naive guess scored 92.18-83.25 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    24-28
    skill:
    −83.25
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    40.48
    baseline:
    92.18
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    11
    naive home margin:
    0.72
    predicted margin:
    8

    Closing line (Nov 1): Broncos by 1.5, total 41.5 · this 21–13 calls a Chiefs win (by 8; the line gave the Chiefs 50%) and fewer points (34).

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  • Atlanta Falcons 23 — Buccaneers 17

    “Prediction: Falcons 23, Buccaneers 17”

    Miss · 26Scored 26.19a naive guess scored 63.03-59.32 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    0-16
    skill:
    −59.32
    they picked:
    ATL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    26.19
    baseline:
    63.03
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    16
    weeks left when called:
    11
    naive home margin:
    0.47
    predicted margin:
    6

    Closing line (Nov 1): Buccaneers by 2.5, total 42.5 · this 23–17 calls a Falcons win (by 6; the line gave the Falcons 46%) and fewer points (40).

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  • Detroit Lions 23 — Vikings 14

    “Prediction: Lions 23, Vikings 14”

    Hit · 88Scored 88.1a naive guess scored 91.61-5.65 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    15-19
    skill:
    −5.65
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    88.1
    baseline:
    91.61
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    11
    naive home margin:
    0.47
    predicted margin:
    9

    Closing line (Nov 1): Lions by 3, total 46.5 · this 23–14 calls a bigger Lions win (by 9) and fewer points (37).

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  • Pittsburgh Steelers 20 — Browns 13

    “Prediction: Steelers 20, Browns 13”

    Close · 67Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 51.13+25.02 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    6-27
    skill:
    25.02
    they picked:
    PIT
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    66.67
    baseline:
    51.13
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    21
    weeks left when called:
    11
    naive home margin:
    0.47
    predicted margin:
    7

    Closing line (Nov 1): Steelers by 3.5, total 38.5 · this 20–13 calls a bigger Steelers win (by 7) and fewer points (33).

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  • Buffalo Bills 30 — Ravens 27

    “Prediction: Bills 30, Ravens 27”

    Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    10-36
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    50
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    26
    weeks left when called:
    11
    naive home margin:
    0.47
    predicted margin:
    3

    Closing line (Nov 1): Bills by 3, total 54.5 · this 30–27 calls the line’s margin (Bills by 3) and more points (57).

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  • Green Bay Packers 24 — Panthers 17

    “Prediction: Packers 24, Panthers 17”

    Hit · 98Scored 97.62a naive guess scored 79.94+28.47 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    19-27
    skill:
    28.47
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    97.62
    baseline:
    79.94
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    8
    weeks left when called:
    11
    naive home margin:
    −0.43
    predicted margin:
    7

    Closing line (Oct 29): Packers by 3.5, total 47.5 · this 24–17 calls a bigger Packers win (by 7) and fewer points (41).

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