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Gregg Rosenthal#39 of 87 NFL pundits · Nov 27, 2025

Rosenthal picked the Chargers to beat the Raiders comfortably at home (laying 10 points), and picked the Texans to beat the Colts outright in Indianapolis while getting 4.5 points. They also said the Rams and Seahawks are the two best teams in the NFL, liked the Giants and Saints to cover as underdogs, and thought the Titans would keep it close against Jacksonville.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Game Outcome PicksThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
#39Gregg Rosenthal’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Gregg Rosenthal said

It's a Texans. They're getting four and a half points in Indianapolis, and I think they're gonna win straight up.
Our reading: Houston Texans to beat Colts
Where it was said
Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode
NFL Week 13 Picks with Cynthia Frelund
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidNov 27, 2025
  2. GradedAug 17, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans

    Houston Texans to beat Colts

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.33difficulty+133skill

    Closing line (Nov 30): Colts by 3 · underdog pick, Texans 40%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    HOU
    score:
    20-16
    skill:
    133
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    IND
    difficulty:
    1.33
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    6
    Think this is wrong?

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