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Lane MillsOct 10, 2026

Lane Mills picked the Titans to beat the Texans 24-21 at home in Week 5, citing Houston's inefficient pass defense, DeMeco Ryans' takeover of play-calling, and Cam Ward coming off their best game.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

2Miss · out of 100
Texans 26–3What happenedcalled Titans by 3 · lost by 23
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
2.38This callout of 100
+4.24Skillafter difficulty

What Lane Mills said

Call me crazy, but I have the Titans in a narrow, offense-leading victory.
Our reading: Tennessee Titans 24 — Texans 21
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Staff Predictions for Titans vs. Ravens: Tennessee Comes Out on Top for 1 Main Reason
The original
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  1. SaidOct 9
  2. PlayedOct 11
  3. GradedOct 11

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 2.4 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsTennessee Titans

    Tennessee Titans 24 — Texans 21

    What happenedTexans 26–3called Titans by 3 · lost by 23
    2.38Miss · naive 0
    2.38this call0a naive guess2.38better than naive1.78difficulty+4.24skill

    Closing line (Oct 11): Texans by 6.5, total 37.5 · this 24–21 calls a Titans win (by 3; the line gave the Titans about 1 in 4 (27%)) and more points (45).

    How this was scored
    score:
    26-3
    skill:
    4.24
    they picked:
    TEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    2.38
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    23
    weeks left when called:
    14
    naive home margin:
    0.88
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?

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