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Rich Hribar#24 of 87 NFL pundits · Jun 23, 2023

Hribar places Travis Kelce alone in Tier 1 as the clear TE1 for 2023, while predicting the gap between Kelce and the rest of the position will narrow compared to 2022.

Published in writing · Sharp Football AnalysisRead the original

92Hit · out of 100
Finished #2What happenedcalled #1 · by receiving yards
91.67A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
91.67This callout of 100
#24Rich Hribar’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Rich Hribar said

Travis Kelce is still in a tier by himself at the tight end position.
Our reading: Travis Kelce to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
Where it was published
Sharp Football Analysis
The piece
Fantasy Football Tight End Tiers, 2023
  1. SaidJun 23, 2023
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 91.7 out of 100, against 91.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

positional finish
1They said
2What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. Positional FinishesTravis Kelce

    Travis Kelce to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards

    What happenedFinished #2called #1 · by receiving yards
    91.67Hit · naive 91.67
    91.67this call91.67a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Travis Kelce
    season:
    2023
    zero credit this far off:
    12
    accuracy:
    91.67
    baseline:
    91.67
    position:
    TE
    ranked by:
    receiving yards
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    1
    actual finish:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    1
    Think this is wrong?

Others on the same people

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