Erick-Woods Erickson· Nov 6, 2024
Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
“it is now safe to say the GOP will be in charge of the Senate”
published in writing · Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 chamber control and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Chamber ControlNov 6, 2024
“the Republican Party will control the United States Senate... it is now safe to say the GOP will be in charge of the Senate.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersNov 6, 2024
“In a few hours, Jon Tester is expected to lose.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-mt
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Tim Sheehy
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Tim Sheehy
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More chamber control
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Carl CannonChamber ControlHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Sam WangChamber ControlMiss · 0Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber.
- Henry OlsenChamber ControlHit · 100Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
- David PakmanChamber ControlHit · 100Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber.
- Sean TrendeChamber ControlHit · 100Trende said flatly that Harris will not win Iowa, and that the Senate outcome will range from 51 to 57 Republican seats, leaving Republicans in the majority.
- Lakshya JainChamber ControlHit · 100Split Ticket's final 2024 forecast calls the presidency a tossup with Harris the narrowest favorite at 53% and exactly 270 electoral votes, carried by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; it gives Republicans a 73% chance of taking the Senate at 52-48 while Democrats have a 53% chance of a 219-216 House majority, and it rates dozens of individual Senate, House and governor races.