Skip to main content

LaVar ArringtonSep 4, 2025

LaVar Arrington picked Minnesota to win the NFC North, Philadelphia the East, Tampa Bay the South and Arizona the West, with Seattle finishing last in the West.

Said on air or in an interview · 2 Pros and a Cup of Joe (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 8calls landed2 hits · 1 close call · 5 misses · all settled
37.5Average accuracyout of 100, across 8 calls
48.8A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
8 of 8Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What LaVar Arrington said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
In the West, I have Arizona winning the West.
LaVar Arrington, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
The episode
Hour 2: Jonas, Brady & LaVar – NFC PREDICTIONS
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidSep 4, 2025
  2. GradedAug 5–17, 2026
  1. 1Philadelphia Eagles to win the division“The NFC East, I got Philly winning it.”
  2. 2Arizona Cardinals to win the division“In the West, I have Arizona winning the West.”
  3. 3Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division“In the South, I have Tampa Bay winning it.”
  4. 4Minnesota Vikings to win the division“Minnesota will finish number one... I think that they're going to be the one that comes out of the North.”
  5. 5Power Rankings“I got Philly winning it. I got Washington second... except I have the Giants third, and I have Dallas bringing up the rear”
  6. 6Power Rankings“I got Green Bay bringing up second, Detroit falls the third, and the Bears. They will be fourth in the NFC North”
  7. 7Power Rankings“In the West, I have Arizona winning the West... I believe Seattle will finish last”
  8. 8Power Rankings“I have Tampa Bay winning it. I have Atlanta bringing up second. Carolina will add out New Orleans for third, while New Orleans will fit there's fourth.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Philadelphia Eagles to win the division1Division Winners—1001000
Arizona Cardinals to win the division2Division Winners—000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division3Division Winners—000
Minnesota Vikings to win the division4Division Winners—000
“I got Philly winning it. I got Washington second... except I…”5Power Rankings—75750
“I got Green Bay bringing up second, Detroit falls the third,…”6Power Rankings—25250
“In the West, I have Arizona winning the West... I believe…”7Power Rankings—0100−200
“I have Tampa Bay winning it. I have Atlanta bringing up second.…”8Power Rankings—10090+20
8 calls · 2 hits · 1 close call · 5 misses · all settled37.548.8

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

8 checkable claims — 4 division winners and 4 power rankings — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 8 have settled, averaging 37.5 out of 100, against 48.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Division WinnersPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles to win the division

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    yes
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Division WinnersArizona Cardinals

    Arizona Cardinals to win the division

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    ARI
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LAR
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    no
    Think this is wrong?
  3. 3Division WinnersTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    TB
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    TB
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    no
    Think this is wrong?
  4. 4Division WinnersMinnesota Vikings

    Minnesota Vikings to win the division

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    MIN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    DET
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    no
    Think this is wrong?
  5. 5Power RankingsNew York Giants

    “I got Philly winning it. I got Washington second... except I have the Giants third, and I have Dallas bringing up the rear”

    VerdictClose
    75Close · naive 75
    75this call75a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    75
    baseline:
    75
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  6. 6Power RankingsChicago Bears

    “I got Green Bay bringing up second, Detroit falls the third, and the Bears. They will be fourth in the NFC North”

    VerdictMiss
    25Miss · naive 25
    25this call25a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    25
    baseline:
    25
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  7. 7Power Rankings

    “In the West, I have Arizona winning the West... I believe Seattle will finish last”

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    −200
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  8. 8Power Rankings

    “I have Tampa Bay winning it. I have Atlanta bringing up second. Carolina will add out New Orleans for third, while New Orleans will fit there's fourth.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 90
    100this call90a naive guess10better than naive2difficulty+20skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    20
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    90
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  9. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once

    37.5naive 48.8

Others on the same people

More division winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.