Gabe Fleisher· Sep 22, 2026
Asked to pick among three midterm scenarios, Fleisher chose the middle one: Democrats win the House while Republicans hold the Senate with a slim majority. He also said he would not be surprised if Republican Senate candidates in Texas, Iowa and Kansas end up winning comfortably despite polling.
“I will say democratic house, slim republican senate.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 2 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Chamber ControlSep 22, 2026
“I think right now, I will say democratic house, slim republican senate.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Chamber ControlSep 22, 2026
“I think right now, I will say democratic house, slim republican senate.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 22, 2026
“I would also not be surprised if Ken Paxton and Ashley Henson and, you know, Roger Marshall, all these candidates, like you say, end up winning fairly comfortably in the end.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 22, 2026
“I would also not be surprised if Ken Paxton and Ashley Henson and, you know, Roger Marshall, all these candidates, like you say, end up winning fairly comfortably in the end.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 22, 2026
“I would also not be surprised if Ken Paxton and Ashley Henson and, you know, Roger Marshall, all these candidates, like you say, end up winning fairly comfortably in the end.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.