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2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa

Senate · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Ashley Hinson57¢
  • Josh Turek43¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 3 polls in 21 days · through September 28, 2026

  • Josh Turek47.0%
  • Ashley Hinson45.0%
  • Thomas Laehn2.0%

Josh Turek by 2.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-09-24 – 2026-09-281008 LVJosh Turek 49% · Ashley Hinson 47%
Marist University2026-09-17 – 2026-09-201050 RVJosh Turek 50% · Ashley Hinson 42%
co/efficient (REP)2026-09-14 – 2026-09-16831 LVAshley Hinson 46% · Josh Turek 42% · Thomas Laehn 2%
YouGov2026-09-03 – 2026-09-082166 RVJosh Turek 44% · Ashley Hinson 43%
YouGov2026-09-03 – 2026-09-082041 LVJosh Turek 47% · Ashley Hinson 43%
Emerson College · for Nexstar Media2026-08-31 – 2026-09-01750 LVAshley Hinson 50% · Josh Turek 45%
Suffolk University2026-08-20 – 2026-08-23500 LVAshley Hinson 45.4% · Josh Turek 40.8%
Emerson College · for Nexstar Media2026-08-02 – 2026-08-04712 LVAshley Hinson 48% · Josh Turek 45%
The New York Times/Siena University2026-06-15 – 2026-06-27600 LVAshley Hinson 48% · Josh Turek 46%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-06-23 – 2026-06-271003 RVJosh Turek 50% · Ashley Hinson 46%
Cygnal (REP) · for Iowans for Tax Relief2026-06-16 – 2026-06-19600 LVAshley Hinson 46% · Josh Turek 44.2%
Public Policy Polling (DEM) · for Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee2026-06-03 – 2026-06-04557 RVJosh Turek 46% · Ashley Hinson 46%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4
Ashley Hinson 6· 6 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (8)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.