Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Feb 23, 2026
Brockman's overreaction slate: Breece Hall leaves the Jets and plays in the playoffs next season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver in the league, three quarterbacks (Mendoza first overall, plus Ty Simpson and Carson Beck) go in the first round, and the Patriots crater to a 7-10 season.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Chris Brockman said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromReese Hall's gonna be in the playoffs next year, and the Jets will again be fourth in the AFC.
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Combine Preview, Offseason Primer & More
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidFeb 23
- GradedAug 13–14
- 1Carson Beck to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“Three quarterbacks are going in the first round... You said Ty Simpson and Carson Beck? ... I am gonna call my shot. It is those three quarterbacks.”
- 2Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“And we know he's going first. We know he's going number one.”
- 3New England Patriots to finish with 7 wins“I've seen some people in New England are already freaking out about a seven and ten season. That's how bad it's gonna be. That's how bad it's gonna be next year”
- 4Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“Three quarterbacks are going in the first round... You said Ty Simpson and Carson Beck? ... I am gonna call my shot. It is those three quarterbacks.”
- 5Breece Hall to move“Okay. Reese Hall's gonna be in the playoffs next year, and the Jets will again be fourth in the AFC. / You're just assuming that the jets are just gonna watch another guy go.”
- 6Jaxon Smith-Njigba to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards“Super Bowl champion, offensive player of the year, and JSN is the best wide receiver in the NFL and should be the highest paid at the position.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Beck to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)1 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 65 | 23.94 | 50 | — | |
| Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 12 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| New England Patriots to finish with 7 wins3 | Season Win Totals | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)4 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 13 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Breece Hall to move5 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards6 | Positional Finishes | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 2 hits · 2 misses · 1 waiting · 1 too vague to check | 56 | 37.5 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive6 claims — 3 mock draft picks, 1 positional finish, 1 season win total and 1 trade and signing call — the 5 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of the 5 calls we can check have settled so far, averaging 56 out of 100, against 37.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Carson Beck to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 6523.94Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Carson Beck
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 23.94
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 65
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 23.94
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Mock Draft PicksFernando Mendoza
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
What happenedWent 1mocked at 1100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
3Season Win TotalsNew England Patriots
New England Patriots to finish with 7 wins
What happened14called 70Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NE
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 13100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
5Trade and Signing CallsBreece Hall
Breece Hall to move
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Positional FinishesJaxon Smith-NjigbaSeattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
VerdictToo vague to checkToo vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
56naive 37.5
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup.Tyler Sullivan · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9.Dave Richard · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Richard picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.John Pluym · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Pluym picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.Pamela Maldonado · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Maldonado picks the Seahawks in Week 9.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.