Charles DavisSep 6, 2022
Davis picked Patrick Mahomes MVP, Josh Allen OPOY, Nick Bosa DPOY, George Pickens OROY, Aidan Hutchinson DROY, Robert Woods Comeback Player and Andy Reid Coach of the Year.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Charles Davis said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromCharles Davis, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2022 NFL Awards Predictions: MVP, Rookies of the Year, and More - The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Sep 7, 2022
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidSep 5, 2022
- GradedAug 5, 2026
- 1Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year“1. Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (10 votes: Cassel, Davis, ...)”
- 2Nick Bosa to win Defensive Player of the Year“T2. 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa (3 votes: Davis, Jennings, Wannstedt)”
- 3Patrick Mahomes to win Most Valuable Player“T2. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (3 votes: Charles Davis, Marty Mornhinweg, Wade Phillips)”
- 4Robert Woods to win Comeback Player of the Year“Titans WR Robert Woods (1 vote: Davis)”
- 5George Pickens to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“T2. Steelers WR George Pickens (3 votes: Barber, Davis, Jennings)”
- 6Andy Reid to win Coach of the Year“T3. Chiefs coach Andy Reid (2 votes: Davis, Mornhinweg)”
- 7Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year“2. Bills QB Josh Allen (4 votes: Davis, Koetter, Martz, Zimmer)”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year1 | Award Picks | Sauce Gardner won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nick Bosa to win Defensive Player of the Year2 | Award Picks | Nick Bosa won | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Patrick Mahomes to win Most Valuable Player3 | Award Picks | Patrick Mahomes won | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Robert Woods to win Comeback Player of the Year4 | Award Picks | Geno Smith won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| George Pickens to win Offensive Rookie of the Year5 | Award Picks | Garrett Wilson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Andy Reid to win Coach of the Year6 | Coach Award Picks | Brian Daboll won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year7 | Award Picks | Justin Jefferson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 calls · 2 hits · 5 misses · all settled | 28.6 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 28.6 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Award PicksAidan HutchinsonDetroit Lions
Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedSauce Gardner woncalled Aidan Hutchinson0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aidan Hutchinson
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Sauce Gardner
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Award PicksNick BosaSan Francisco 49ers
Nick Bosa to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedNick Bosa won100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Nick Bosa
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Nick Bosa
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Award PicksPatrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes to win Most Valuable Player
What happenedPatrick Mahomes won100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Patrick Mahomes
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Patrick Mahomes
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Award PicksRobert WoodsTennessee Titans
Robert Woods to win Comeback Player of the Year
What happenedGeno Smith woncalled Robert Woods0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- comeback_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Robert Woods
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Geno Smith
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
5Award PicksGeorge PickensPittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedGarrett Wilson woncalled George Pickens0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- George Pickens
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Garrett Wilson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
6Coach Award PicksKansas City Chiefs
Andy Reid to win Coach of the Year
What happenedBrian Daboll woncalled Andy Reid0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Andy Reid
- naive:
- the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Brian Daboll
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
7Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo Bills
Josh Allen to win Offensive Player of the Year
What happenedJustin Jefferson woncalled Josh Allen0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Justin Jefferson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
28.6naive 0
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Willie Colon · Award Picks · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Colon picked the Seahawks to win 24-14 with Sam Darnold as Super Bowl MVP.Danny Parkins · Award Picks · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Miss 0
Parkins picked Seattle to win 27-16 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Super Bowl MVP.