Nate Tice#17 of 87 NFL pundits · Feb 28, 2025
Tice gave draft projections for the tight end, receiver, offensive line and running back classes: Colston Loveland in the 18-24 range, Tyler Warren around top 15, Will Campbell as their top offensive lineman, Luther Burden as a late first/early second, Xavier Restrepo as a third-rounder, Emeka Egbuka as an NFL No. 2 receiver, and Devin Neal as a Round 2 back.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Nate Tice said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThat being top ten might be a little rich, I might say more as top fifteen, but still that's splitting hairs because he is that kind of talent.
- Where it was said
- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- Day 1 Combine Standouts and Players to Watch with Nate Tice and Nick Shook
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidFeb 28, 2025
- GradedAug 7–18, 2026
- 1Xavier Restrepo to be picked “like a third rounder” (picks 65–102)“He's a slot only guy, but he'll probably be a number three, but I like him as like a third rounder.”
- 2Luther Burden III to be picked “late first rounder, maybe sneak in early second type” (picks 1–64)“especially I've seen him more as a late first rounder, maybe sneak in early second type”
- 3Tyler Warren to be picked “more as top fifteen” (picks 1–15)“That being top ten might be a little rich, I might say more as top fifteen”
- 4Will Campbell to be 1st offensive lineman off the board“But for it it's the context of he's my old lineman one.”
- 5Colston Loveland to be picked “maybe in that eighteen to twenty four range”“I look at you more in the twenties, and that's where I kind of I've loved one. Maybe in that eighteen to twenty four range.”
- 6Devin Neal to be picked “round two guy”“Neal is like a round I might go round two guy with him”
- 7Emeka Egbuka to be 2nd on the depth chart“but he Abuka just he's a two. He's like a number two receiver, that is what he is.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Restrepo to be picked “like a third rounder” (picks 65–102)1 | Mock Draft Picks | Went undrafted | 0 | 50 | — | |
| Luther Burden III to be picked “late first rounder, maybe sneak in early second type” (picks 1–64)2 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 39 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Tyler Warren to be picked “more as top fifteen” (picks 1–15)3 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 14 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Will Campbell to be 1st offensive lineman off the board4 | Position Order Calls | — | 100 | 8.33 | +91.67 | |
| Colston Loveland to be picked “maybe in that eighteen to twenty four range”5 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Devin Neal to be picked “round two guy”6 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Emeka Egbuka to be 2nd on the depth chart7 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 7 calls · 3 hits · 1 miss · 3 waiting | 75 | 39.6 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive7 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks, 1 depth chart call and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 75 out of 100, against 39.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksXavier RestrepoMiami Dolphins
Xavier Restrepo to be picked “like a third rounder” (picks 65–102)
What happenedWent undrafted0Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Xavier Restrepo
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2025; later signed with TEN
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- like a third rounder (picks 65–102)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Mock Draft PicksLuther Burden III
Luther Burden III to be picked “late first rounder, maybe sneak in early second type” (picks 1–64)
What happenedWent 39100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Luther Burden III
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 39
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- late first rounder, maybe sneak in early second type (picks 1–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Tyler Warren to be picked “more as top fifteen” (picks 1–15)
What happenedWent 14100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Tyler Warren
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- more as top fifteen (picks 1–15)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
4Position Order CallsWill Campbell
Will Campbell to be 1st offensive lineman off the board
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 8.33100this call−8.33a naive guess=91.67better than naive×1difficulty=+91.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- naming one of the 41 at random averages 8.33
- skill:
- 91.67
- player:
- Will Campbell
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 8.33
- position:
- offensive lineman
- class size:
- 41
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
5Mock Draft PicksColston Loveland
Colston Loveland to be picked “maybe in that eighteen to twenty four range”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Devin Neal to be picked “round two guy”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
7Depth Chart CallsEmeka Egbuka
Emeka Egbuka to be 2nd on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
75naive 39.6
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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