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Albert Breer· Mar 25, 2026

Breer says the consensus he's gathered is that Fernando Mendoza is far and away the top quarterback of the class and a potential No. 1 overall pick, while some teams don't see Ty Simpson as a first-rounder — though he wouldn't be surprised if Simpson ends up going in the first round anyway. He also expects Aaron Rodgers to return to Pittsburgh for a 22nd season and sees a real possibility of the Eagles trading AJ Brown to the Patriots after June 1.

“So it it wouldn't it wouldn't surprise me if he winds up going in the first round.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 2 trade and signing calls, 1 mock draft pick and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 27.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Trade and Signing CallsA.J. BrownNew England PatriotsMar 25, 2026

    A.J. Brown to move to New England Patriots

    “I certainly think that there's a possibility that the Patriots and Eagles do wind up doing a deal post June 1”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    200
    player:
    A.J. Brown
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    NE
    was with:
    PHI
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    reported:
    traded → NE (from PHI)
    settled by:
    a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he stays where he is
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonMar 25, 2026

    Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    “So, would it surprise me if he won the first round? No. ... it wouldn't surprise me if he winds up going in the first round.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Position Order CallsFernando MendozaMar 25, 2026

    Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board

    “it does feel like the general consensus is it's Fernando Mendoza at the top of the class and then a drop off... the consensus that I've gotten thus far is that Mendoza is far and away, you know, the the the number one guy”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 33.08+66.92 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
    skill:
    66.92
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    33.08
    position:
    quarterback
    class size:
    10
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    1
    predicted order:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Trade and Signing CallsAaron RodgersPittsburgh SteelersMar 25, 2026

    Aaron Rodgers to move to Pittsburgh Steelers

    “there's a chance there's a there's a good chance he comes back... maybe he could come back and play a I think this would be twenty second year”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

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