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Albert Breer#35 of 87 NFL pundits · Mar 25, 2026

Breer says the consensus he's gathered is that Fernando Mendoza is far and away the top quarterback of the class and a potential No. 1 overall pick, while some teams don't see Ty Simpson as a first-rounder — though he wouldn't be surprised if Simpson ends up going in the first round anyway. He also expects Aaron Rodgers to return to Pittsburgh for a 22nd season and sees a real possibility of the Eagles trading AJ Brown to the Patriots after June 1.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 3calls landed3 hits · 1 waiting
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
27.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 4Settled1 still waiting
#35Albert Breer’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Albert Breer said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
So it it wouldn't it wouldn't surprise me if he winds up going in the first round.
Albert Breer, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
The episode
Hour 2: MMQB’s Albert Breer, Power Ranking of Super Bowl in the NFL Network Era
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidMar 25
  2. GradedAug 13–Sep 18
  1. 1A.J. Brown to move to New England Patriots“I certainly think that there's a possibility that the Patriots and Eagles do wind up doing a deal post June 1”
  2. 2Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“So, would it surprise me if he won the first round? No. ... it wouldn't surprise me if he winds up going in the first round.”
  3. 3Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board“it does feel like the general consensus is it's Fernando Mendoza at the top of the class and then a drop off... the consensus that I've gotten thus far is that Mendoza is far and away, you know, the the the number one guy”
  4. 4Aaron Rodgers to move to Pittsburgh Steelers“there's a chance there's a there's a good chance he comes back... maybe he could come back and play a I think this would be twenty second year”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
A.J. Brown to move to New England Patriots1Trade and Signing Calls—1000+200
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)2Mock Draft PicksWent 1310050—
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board3Position Order Calls—10033.08+66.92
Aaron Rodgers to move to Pittsburgh Steelers4Trade and Signing Calls————
4 calls · 3 hits · 1 waiting10027.7

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

4 checkable claims — 2 trade and signing calls, 1 mock draft pick and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 27.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Trade and Signing CallsA.J. BrownNew England Patriots

    A.J. Brown to move to New England Patriots

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    200
    player:
    A.J. Brown
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    NE
    was with:
    PHI
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    reported:
    traded → NE (from PHI)
    settled by:
    a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he stays where he is
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Mock Draft PicksTy Simpson

    Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    What happenedWent 13
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Position Order CallsFernando Mendoza

    Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 33.08
    100this call33.08a naive guess66.92better than naive1difficulty+66.92skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
    skill:
    66.92
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    33.08
    position:
    quarterback
    class size:
    10
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    1
    predicted order:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Trade and Signing CallsAaron RodgersPittsburgh Steelers

    Aaron Rodgers to move to Pittsburgh Steelers

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  5. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    100naive 27.7

Who this take is about

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