Chris Raybon· Jul 23, 2025
Raybon's biggest offseason move is Liam Coen to Jacksonville, and he expects nearly every Jaguars fantasy piece to beat their draft cost — Trevor Lawrence as a QB12-type, rookie Bhayshul Tuten as the team's eventual lead back, Brian Thomas Jr. with WR1-overall upside and Brenton Strange as value. He also expects mild regression for Baker Mayfield without Coen (still a top-six fantasy QB), likes Omarion Hampton, Treveon Henderson, Stefon Diggs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed and Jordan Love, and thinks Najee Harris slips to RB3 territory.
“Brian Thomas Junior has upside to be the number one wide receiver in the entire NFL this year.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
12 checkable claims — 7 sleeper calls, 3 depth chart calls and 2 positional finishes — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 12 have settled, averaging 53.5 out of 100, against 59 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
12 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsBhayshul TutenJacksonville JaguarsJul 23, 2025
Bhayshul Tuten to outplay his draft cost (going as the running back forty four)
“rookie baseel tooting at running back. I think he could smash his ADPs going as the running back forty four.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- going as the running back forty four
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Bhayshul Tuten
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB48
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Sleeper CallsTrevor LawrenceJacksonville JaguarsJul 23, 2025
Trevor Lawrence to outplay his draft cost (going around the quarterback twenty)
“I think Trevor Lawrence could beat his ADPs going around the quarterback twenty. I think he should be more so a low end QB one, high m QB two.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- going around the quarterback twenty
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Trevor Lawrence
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB27
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsBrenton StrangeJacksonville JaguarsJul 23, 2025
Brenton Strange to outplay his draft cost (Their tight end is going twentieth)
“tight end, Brenton Strange, both of those guys I think are going to provide some value as well”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- Their tight end is going twentieth
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Brenton Strange
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE30
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- TE23
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsMatthew GoldenGreen Bay PackersJul 23, 2025
Matthew Golden to outplay his draft cost (going outside the top forty, right outside the top forty)
“I think Golden is a smash... I know he's kind of going outside the top forty, right outside the top forty”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- going outside the top forty, right outside the top forty
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Matthew Golden
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR92
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Sleeper CallsJayden ReedGreen Bay PackersJul 23, 2025
Jayden Reed to outplay his draft cost (he's also going outside the top forty)
“I think Reed is undervalued as well... he's also going outside the top forty now”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- he's also going outside the top forty
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Jayden Reed
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR21
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR117
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsStefon DiggsNew England PatriotsJul 23, 2025
Stefon Diggs to outplay his draft cost (he's going outside the top forty in most fantasy drafts)
“I really think Stefan Diggs is being being underrated here... he's going outside the top forty in most fantasy drafts”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- he's going outside the top forty in most fantasy drafts
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Stefon Diggs
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR70
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR24
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Brian Thomas Jr. to outplay his draft cost (is going wide receiver eight)
“Brian Thomas, who has number one overall Fantasy player like Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase type upside is going wide receiver eight”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- is going wide receiver eight
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR4
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR45
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Bhayshul Tuten to be 1st on the depth chart
“They're likely top running back by the end of the year's going outside the top forty”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- JAX
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Bhayshul Tuten
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Rhamondre Stevenson to be 1st on the depth chart
“where he's going, like outside the top forty at running back, he could still be the lead back”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NE
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsMatthew GoldenGreen Bay PackersJul 23, 2025
Matthew Golden to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think he could be the Packers number one wide receiver this year... I think he's going to be the number one when it's all said and done”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 83.33-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- GB
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Matthew Golden
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Trevor Lawrence to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have um QB twelve”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 0+66.67 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 66.67
- player:
- Trevor Lawrence
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 27
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 12
Baker Mayfield to finish top 6 at his position, by fantasy points
“I still think Baker is a top ten fantasy quarterback... somewhere in that six to twelve range. I think I have them number six”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 33.33+33.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 33.33
- player:
- Baker Mayfield
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 33.33
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 4
- actual finish:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 6
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 50Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tom StrachanSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Tom Strachan backed Xavier Worthy, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Darnell Mooney, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter as values at their draft costs, while avoiding Jerry Jeudy and the Cleveland receivers.
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Derek BrownSleeper Calls · Jalen CokerHit · 100Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.
- Chris WelshSleeper Calls · Tyler WarrenHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Pat FitzmauriceSleeper Calls · Rashee RiceMiss · 0Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.
- Joe PisapiaSleeper Calls · Tyreek HillMiss · 0Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.