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Claudia GrisalesOct 26, 2022

Discussing North Carolina's Senate race, they suggested that because Republican voters tend to break late, Ted Budd would likely show a sizable advantage by Election Day over Democrat Cheri Beasley.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The NPR Politics PodcastHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Ted Budd wonWhat happenedcertified result
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Claudia Grisales said

So we could see that, like you said, Tam, this big advantage on... Come election day for Bud.
Our reading: Ted Budd to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
Where it was said
The NPR Politics Podcast
The episode
The Races Are In North Carolina, But The Politics Are National
The original
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  1. SaidOct 26, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Ted Budd to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina

    What happenedTed Budd woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.02difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2022-senate-nc
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    result from:
    fec-2022
    who won:
    Ted Budd
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Ted Budd
    days before the vote when called:
    12
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the winner's party:
    Republican
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

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