Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

2026 Georgia gubernatorial election

Governors · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Rick Jackson55¢
  • Keisha Lance Bottoms46¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 2 polls in 21 days · through September 23, 2026

  • Rick Jackson49.3%
  • Keisha Lance Bottoms47.8%

Rick Jackson by 1.5 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
InsiderAdvantage2026-09-22 – 2026-09-231200 LVRick Jackson 48% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 46%
Big Data Poll · for Public Polling Project2026-09-21 – 2026-09-23678 LVRick Jackson 50.5% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 49.5%
InsiderAdvantage · for James Magazine2026-08-16 – 2026-08-17800 LVRick Jackson 46.3% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 46.2%
Quantus Insights · for Natural Gas Association of Georgia2026-07-29 – 2026-08-01815 LVKeisha Lance Bottoms 46.4% · Rick Jackson 44.9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research · for AARP2026-07-13 – 2026-07-161060 LVKeisha Lance Bottoms 48% · Rick Jackson 46%
Wick2026-06-27 – 2026-06-301175 LVRick Jackson 43.2% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 42.7%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · for Fox News2026-06-23 – 2026-06-271002 RVKeisha Lance Bottoms 52% · Rick Jackson 47%
Concord Public Opinion Partners (DEM) · for Education Reform Now Advocacy2026-05-30 – 2026-06-02510 LVKeisha Lance Bottoms 52% · Burt Jones 42%
Concord Public Opinion Partners (DEM) · for Education Reform Now Advocacy2026-05-30 – 2026-06-02510 LVKeisha Lance Bottoms 53% · Rick Jackson 38%
Echelon Insights · for NetChoice2026-04-03 – 2026-04-09407 LVKeisha Lance Bottoms 49% · Burt Jones 43%
Echelon Insights · for NetChoice2026-04-03 – 2026-04-09407 LVKeisha Lance Bottoms 49% · Rick Jackson 43%
Echelon Insights · for NetChoice2026-04-03 – 2026-04-09407 LVKeisha Lance Bottoms 46% · Brad Raffensperger 44%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 27Oct 4
Rick Jackson 1· 1 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (1)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.