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Darrion GraySep 17, 2026

Darion Gray picked the Ravens to beat the Saints 28-20 and predicted Chris Olave would post a second straight 100-yard receiving game.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Saints (podcast)Hear the original

48Close · out of 100

Saints 24–17What happenedcalled Ravens by 8 · lost by 7

32.1A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge

47.62This callout of 100

+30.1Skillafter difficulty

What Darrion Gray said

I think he's gonna go for a 100 yards for a second week in a row.

Our reading: Baltimore Ravens 28 — Saints 20

Where it was said: Locked On Saints (podcast)
The episode: SAINTS SQUAD SHOW: Saints May Have To Pick Their Poison Between Lamar Jackson or Derrick Henry
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 17
PlayedSep 20
GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 47.6 out of 100, against 32.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Score Predictions Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens 28 — Saints 20
What happenedSaints 24–17called Ravens by 8 · lost by 7
47.62Close · naive 32.1
47.62this call32.1a naive guess15.52better than naive1.94difficulty+30.1skill
Closing line (Sep 20): Ravens by 8.5, total 45.5 · this 28–20 calls a closer game (Ravens by 8) and more points (48).
How this was scored
score:
24-17
skill:
30.1
they picked:
BAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
47.62
baseline:
32.1
difficulty:
1.94
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
17
naive home margin:
−0.52
predicted margin:
8
Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Saints at RavensSaints 24Ravens 1713 calls →

Who this take is about

Baltimore Ravens

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.
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